ABSTRACT
Climate change is a natural condition that is beyond human control and has an impact on various aspects of life. Agriculture is the sector most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. In Indonesia, climate change impacts have significant implications, especially for national food security and energy supply. Several studies state that without adaptation to climate change, estimates of food crop production in 2050 will experience a significant decline. The National Action Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change is part of Indonesia's national development framework. The government of Indonesia has also implemented the Paris Agreement to strengthen the global response to the threats of climate change, in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty. In terms of national development planning, the National Action Plan for Climate Change Adaptation is a thematic cross-sector plan that is more specific in preparing development plans with sustainable development at the national level. The National Action Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change aimed to provide direction to the Government Work Plan and the National Medium-Term Development Plan in the future so that it is more responsive to the impacts of climate change on agriculture and food security. This study discusses various national adaptation initiatives with detailed practical steps and the Indonesian government's principal regulations in the present and future.
INTRODUCTION
Indonesia is a developing country with a stable democracy and the fourth largest population in the world. Although economic growth has continued to increase over the past decade, around 11% of Indonesia's population is still below the poverty line. To alleviate poverty, the Government of Indonesia projects economic development to reach at least 5% per year to reduce the poverty rate to below 4% by 2025 as mandated in the Republic Indonesia Act 1945 Article 28 H Paragraph 1, including "that everyone has the right to a decent and healthy life." Considering the impact of climate change is beginning to be felt, Indonesia is still looking for a balance of development in the present and the future as well as poverty alleviation priorities.
Along with the development of industry and the economy in Indonesia, as a consequence, Indonesia produces carbon dioxide emissions, it turns out that Indonesia is among the largest emitters in the world. In 2018, Indonesia produced 557.5 million tons of CO2 emissions, which increased from 297.6 million tons in 1999 to 557.5 million tons in 2018, growing at an average annual rate of 3.40%, as shown in Figure 1.
In 2010, the Indonesian government launched a GHG emission reduction target of 26% by 2020 and up to 41% if there is international support, compared to the business as usual scenario in 2020. Under the leadership of President Joko Widodo, the current Indonesian government has determined nine national development priority actions as outlined in Nine Priorities Goal of President or Nawa Cita (Ministry of National Development Planning, 2019). Nawa Cita covers the protection of the whole nation in many sectors, such as improving life quality and human resources productivity. The Nawa Cita mission aligns with national commitments towards low carbon development and climate resilience, with climate change adaptation and mitigation as an integrated and cross-cutting priority in the National Medium-Term Development Plan (Bappenas, 2010).
Indonesia's geographical location is in the global sea conveyor belt (thermohaline circulation). Indonesia is the world's largest archipelagic country with a rich, tropical rainforest containing the world's natural and mineral resource reserves. Indonesia is also known for its role in efforts to deal with climate change. However, Indonesia is also vulnerable to natural disasters exacerbated by climate change, especially in low-lying areas throughout the archipelago. Therefore, Indonesia views that whole land and sea-based adaptation and mitigation efforts are a strategic consideration in achieving climate resilience related to food, water, and energy (Ministry of National Development Planning, 2019; Novita, 2018).
As shown in Figure 2, the Jakarta province, South Sumatra, West Java, East Java, and Bali regions are the most densely populated areas (nearly half of the total Indonesian population). These are categorized as very vulnerable to climate change and the most susceptible in the Southeast Asian region. According to the study of Berina and Wijayanti, 2012, flood events in densely populated areas mainly cause Jakarta's vulnerability despite having a high adaptive ability. A high adaptation strategy The Jakarta Provincial Government and the community carry out adaptation and mitigation to reduce the risk of flooding by building canals, improving city infrastructure, and building reservoirs.
The South Sumatra, Papua Region, especially Jayawijaya and Puncak Jaya, are also vulnerable, primarily because of their low adaptive ability and high frequency and exposure to landslides. Besides, the southern coastal area is affected by a significant rise in sea level (up to a height of 5 meters). Furthermore, the results of the identification of existing vulnerable areas need to continue to be deepened and synergized between sectors to get a more comprehensive picture.
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN INDONESIA
Regarding the Indonesian Ministry of National Development Planning report, many sectors are influenced by climate change: food security, energy, health, infrastructure, settlement, ecosystems, forestry, urban area, and coastal area (Climate Transparency, 2017; Ministry of National Development Planning, 2019). Table 1 shows the impacts of climate change on the aforementioned sectors. As can be seen, excessive rainfall can result in floods and landslides, but conversely, too little rainfall results in drought and decreased water availability. Declining water availability will affect the water supply for urban and agricultural areas. Flood events also usually cause losses in residential, municipal, and agricultural sectors. On the other hand, landslides also sometimes cause material and life losses in steep residential areas. The increase in sea surface temperature is suspected to damage coral reefs (coral bleaching) and change the ocean currents, which results in fish migration patterns in the sea, which will further affect the livelihood of fisher folk. Meanwhile, sea-level rise has resulted in the expansion of seawater inundation and abrasion in coastal areas and increased seawater intrusion to the mainland. All of them will negatively impact coastal communities, especially because some of Indonesia's population live in coastal areas, especially in coastal cities. Extreme climate and weather events are suspected of having a variety of spontaneous and massive impacts that need to be adapted in the form of disaster management efforts.
Table 1. Summary of the Impacts of Climate Change on Related Sectors
|
Climate Change Indicator
|
Potential Dangers
|
Sector
|
|
Food Security
|
Energy
|
Health
|
Infrastructure
|
Settlement
|
Ecosystems
|
Forestry
|
Urban
|
Coastal
|
|
Surface temperature
|
Increased evaporation which can increase the level of drought
|
V
|
V
|
|
|
|
V
|
V
|
|
|
|
Decline in agricultural production due to rising temperatures
|
V
|
|
V
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Local warming due to high temperatures during the day
|
|
V
|
V
|
|
V
|
V
|
|
V
|
|
|
The spread of insect population vectors of disease
|
|
|
V
|
|
V
|
|
|
V
|
V
|
|
Increasing the spread of disease through the air medium
|
|
|
V
|
|
V
|
|
|
|
|
|
Changes in population development patterns and migration of pests and plant diseases
|
V
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rainfall
|
Drought due to the amount of deficit precipitation
|
V
|
V
|
V
|
|
|
V
|
V
|
V
|
|
|
Decreased water availability due to the amount of deficit precipitation
|
V
|
V
|
|
V
|
V
|
|
V
|
V
|
V
|
|
Flooding due to increased amount of water and rainfall intensity
|
V
|
V
|
V
|
V
|
V
|
|
|
V
|
|
|
Landslides
|
V
|
|
V
|
V
|
V
|
|
V
|
V
|
|
|
Decreased agricultural production due to fluctuating rainfall
|
V
|
|
V
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Increased mosquito population of dengue fever due to unmanaged waterlogging
|
|
|
V
|
|
V
|
|
|
V
|
V
|
|
Increased spread of disease through the medium of air and waterlogging
|
|
|
V
|
|
V
|
|
|
V
|
V
|
|
Sea surface temperature
|
Changes in fish migration patterns caused by changes in circulation due to sea surface temperature
|
V
|
|
|
|
V
|
V
|
|
V
|
V
|
|
Damage to coral reefs
|
V
|
|
|
|
|
V
|
|
|
V
|
|
Sea surface height
|
The spread of sea water around the coast which causes the coastline retreat
|
V
|
|
V
|
V
|
V
|
V
|
|
V
|
V
|
|
Widespread sea water intrusion areas through groundwater and rivers
|
V
|
|
V
|
V
|
V
|
V
|
|
|
V
|
|
Extreme climate events
|
The occurrence of consecutive dry years
|
|
|
|
V
|
|
|
|
|
V
|
|
Changes in seasonal rainfall patterns
|
V
|
V
|
|
|
|
|
V
|
V
|
|
|
Increased chances of heavy rain, drought, storm surges and strong winds
|
V
|
|
|
V
|
|
V
|
|
|
V
|
|
Extreme weather events
|
Increased opportunities for erosion and abrasion that cause changes in coastline
|
V
|
|
|
|
|
V
|
|
|
V
|
|
Increased chances of a flash flood due to a storm surge
|
V
|
V
|
V
|
V
|
V
|
V
|
|
V
|
V
|
|
Increased opportunities for damage to public facilities and infrastructure due to disasters.
|
V
|
V
|
|
V
|
V
|
|
|
V
|
V
|
Source: Ministry of National Development Planning, 2014
GOVERNMENT ACTION PLAN FOR ADAPTATION OF THE AGRICULTURAL ECONOMY SUB-AREA SECTOR
The effectiveness of climate change management programs for each sector to support climate resilience development can be enhanced by building synergy in the adaptation of sub-sectoral agriculture economy activities. The foundation sector supports The National Action Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change in evolving economic resilience, such as food security, energy independence, and ecosystem resilience.
Food security
The main strategies to achieve the objectives of the National Action Plan for Climate Change Adaptation in the Field of Food Security are:
- Adaptation and development of farming systems to climate change;
- Development and application of adaptive technology to climate stress;
- Development and optimization of land, water and genetic resources;
The implementation of these strategies conducted through 7 Main Clusters, namely:
- Adjustment of the food production system. The implementation of this program is through the procurement of agricultural activities, technology, and infrastructure. Adjusting the food production system cluster includes cropping patterns, technology, farming systems, and fisheries cultivation models. The main goal is to reduce the level of risk and yield loss due to loss of diversity and climate change due to reduced productivity and decreased planted areas.
- Expansion of food agriculture and aquaculture areas. The development of new agricultural areas is not only needed to compensate for land conversion and yield loss but also necessary to offset the rate of increase in food demand, primarily due to population growth. Cluster expansion of new agricultural and aquaculture areas is carried out by considering the possibility of changes in the level of climate risk, and environmental carrying capacity. It does not reduce the function of conservation of the area and habitat. The implementation of this program will start with a climate-resilient spatial plan in line with Law No. 32/2009 concerning Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA).
- Climate resilience improvement and development of agricultural facilities and infrastructure cluster. The mainstay of food agriculture is paddy fields and aquaculture land whose level of vulnerability and adaptability to climate change impacts are strictly related to irrigation capacity. At present, most of the irrigation networks in food production and aquaculture centers have experienced degradation and damage with the potential of declining planting areas and are very vulnerable to climate change, especially extreme climate events. Besides, the development of new sources of growth in food production (area expansion) requires or must be supported by the development of irrigation networks. The agricultural facility and infrastructure improvement and development program will also pay attention to the possibility of climate change and environmental conditions, particularly vegetation cover in the catchment area.
- The acceleration of food diversification. Cluster acceleration of food diversification (plants, livestock, fish) through the development of a variety of healthy food products. The food product from alternative food commodities that are more resistant to climate stress and save land and water resources compared to rice plants, such as corn, green beans, and various local products (sago, canna, yams, beans, and other local foods).
- Innovative and adaptive technology development. The cluster of creative technology development is directed at assembling various technologies adaptive to climate stress and engineering genetic resources of food and fish and optimizing the utilization of land and water resources with low emissions. In addition to innovative and frontier technology, this program aims to explore and develop indigenous technology, including local wisdom. The main targets of the action plan are:
- utilization and engineering of natural resources (plant and fish cultivation);
- optimization of land and water resources through the development of adaptive cultivation technology;
- utilization and efficient use of carbon, biomass, and organic waste.
- The information and communication system development of climate technology. The success of climate change adaptation programs will be determined by the existence of an effective climate information communication system and agricultural and fisheries technology (aquaculture and capture). Thus, this cluster's direction is to improve the accuracy and completeness of information, technology availability, and information flow acceleration.
- Support program clusters. The technical implementation of the above action programs must be supported by analysis and scientific studies related to the vulnerability and impact of climate change on food security, analysis and synthesis of land and water resource utilization policies, development of food institutions and their production systems (agriculture and fisheries) and taking into account cultural, socio-economic aspects, gender aspects, and specific environmental conditions.
Energy independence
Based on Presidential Regulation No. 5 of 2006 concerning the National Energy Policy, in 2025, the contribution of renewable energy as one source of non-petroleum energy will be increased to 17% of the fulfillment of national energy. Two renewable energy sources that are estimated to be significantly affected by climate change are hydropower and biofuel- which are targeted to contribute around 8% of total national energy sources.
The main strategies to achieve the goals of The National Action Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change in the area of energy independence are improvement and conservation of rain catchment areas in watersheds. The rain catchment area is the source of hydropower and geothermal energy generation, and optimization of the utilization of organic and biomass waste and development of energy sources from biofuels (Yusuf et al, 2010). The implementation of these strategies is through 4 main clusters, namely:
- Clusters of conservation of rainfall areas. The action plan in this cluster is directed at efforts to accelerate forestry areas' strengthening, especially in the catchment area, which will be the location of hydropower and geothermal development.
- Cluster expansion of utilization of renewable energy sources. The action plan in this cluster aimed at optimizing the utilization of organic waste for gas and energy production in dense residential areas. The objective of this action plan is to reduce the environmental burden and increase the tolerance interval for extremely high rainfall events and to expand the utilization of micro-scale hydropower energy resources in remote areas as part of an energy-independent village program.
- The cluster of innovative and adaptive technology development for cultivation of biofuel and forest plantations for energy. The action plan in this cluster is directed at developing high-yield and adaptive biofuel cultivation technology for climate stress and the discovery of varieties of fast-growing tree plants for energy plantations.
- Support program clusters. The action plan in this cluster aims at carrying out scientific studies of the vulnerability of rain catchment systems to the impacts of climate change and research into the development of biofuel crop cultivation technology.
Ecosystem resilience
Strategies in building ecosystem resilience to climate change are directly related to interactions in social systems to form community resilience strategies. Ecosystem resilience is how to adapt to changes that occur, including an extreme drought that causes water limitations, changes in vegetation types due to weather patterns, and inundation due to sea-level rise that covers settlements or pond areas and agriculture. Environmental resilience is not intended to restore the changing ecological patterns but to seek mechanisms to overcome and avoid the same changes that occur in other environments. Strategies to achieve the main targets are carried out by:
- Securing water availability and protection from extreme weather;
- Avoiding ecosystems and biodiversity loss; and
- Sustainable water supply and conservation of ecosystems and biodiversity.
POLICY DIRECTIONS AND TARGETS ON CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION ACTION PLAN
According to the National Medium-Term Development Plan, the Indonesian government's most important goal is to make low, lower-middle, upper-middle class income people prosperous, fair, and sustainable. The prediction of macroeconomic development target for the period 2020-2024 is that economic growth will increase by an average of 5.4-6.03% per year and GDP per capita growth of 4.0 ± 1%, which is driven by increased productivity, sustainable investment, improving the labor market, and improving the quality of human resources. With this economic growth target, the GNI per capita (Atlas Method) will increase to US$ 5,600-5,930 per capita by 2024. Besides maintaining economic growth, inflation stability remains a priority. The government targeted the inflation rate at 3.0 ± 1 % throughout 2020-2024 (Ministry of National Development Planning of the Republic of Indonesia, 2019).
Climate change has a significant impact on financial stability and efforts to achieve economic development goals. The implementation of the field of national economic stability and security emphasizes aspects of food security, energy independence, and ecosystems (Ministry of Agriculture, 2011). The adaptation efforts are adjustments in ecological, social, and economic systems in response to climate change impacts that have already occurred or speculated to occur. The response refers to processes, practices, and structures to reduce potential losses and take advantage of changes caused by climate change. Adaptation efforts to respond to climate change are often associated with reducing vulnerability (Hermanto, 2013; Ministry of Agriculture, 2011). The vulnerability of a system to the effects of climate change is followed by three factors: the level of exposure; the level of sensitivity; and adaptive capacity. The level of exposure indicates degree, duration, and magnitude of the system's opportunity to come in contact with shocks or disturbances. The level of sensitivity is an internal condition of the system strongly influenced by the human condition and the environment. The human condition is the social and human levels themselves, such as population, institutions, economic structures, and others. In contrast, environmental conditions are a combination of biophysical and natural conditions such as soil, water, climate, minerals, and ecosystem structure and function. Human conditions and the environment determine the adaptive capacity of a system strongly influenced by climate diversity.
Adaptive capacity shows the ability of a system to adapt to climate change to reduce the potential adverse impacts. Climate change adaptation efforts are to increase the resilience of a system to the impact of climate change. Resilience refers to the understanding of the ability of social and ecological systems to absorb disturbances. In contrast, the system retains its structure and function—many efforts to build system resilience focus on the capacity to absorb disturbances and maintain system functioning, namely the ability for renewal, restructuring, and system development. Understanding it will provide a reference on how to direct and allocate resources and build capacity at the local, regional, and national levels.
By paying attention to the understanding of climate change adaptation and its objectives, the adaptation is an effort to increase the resilience of a system to the impacts of climate change. So that climate change adaptation in Indonesia since 2014 to the next upcoming years will follow:
- Adjustments in the form of strategies, policies, management/technologies, and attitudes to minimize the negative impacts of climate change, and if possible, utilize and maximize the positive effects.
- Efforts to reduce the implications or consequences of climate change, both directly and indirectly, are continuous and discontinuous, temporary and permanent, and impacts according to their level.
By paying attention to sectors and aspects of development affected by climate change, to ensure national development goals with the impacts of climate change, resilience in the economic, social, and environmental sectors are the key factors. Besides, given that Indonesia is an island nation that is vulnerable to climate change, resistance in particular areas such as small islands, coastal and urban areas is also needed. Thus, in this regard, the National Action Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change Strategic Targets is directed at:
- building economic resilience,
- building social life structures that are resilient to the impacts of climate change on living systems resilience, e.g., increasing leadership, management, and community participation in local activities toward climate change, environment, and forestry agendas,
- maintaining the sustainability of ecosystem services or ecosystem resilience,
- strengthening specific areas in urban, coastal, and small islands. The support system is essential to strengthen national resilience towards a sustainable and resilient development system against climate change to support reinforcement in various fields.
CONCLUSION
The National Action Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change does not become a separate document with its formal legal strength. It becomes the primary input and an integral part of national development planning documents and ministry or institutional planning. The National Action Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change is also a reference for local governments in preparing the strategy or regional action plan for adaptation to climate change as a direction in preparing development planning documents that are resistant to climate change. For the implementation of climate change adaptation in the regions, it is necessary to prepare a regional action plan for climate change adaptation at the provincial level, which is the responsibility of each area with coordination from the Ministry of Home Affairs. The regional action plan for climate change adaptation is prepared by involving relevant technical agencies and following regional development priorities based on the capacity of the regional budget and the community. The government prepares action programs in the National Action Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change for several subsectors. In this study, it focuses more on economic resilience as the government prioritizes. Indonesia's economic resilience is determined by food security, energy independence, ecosystem resilience, which play a role in supporting public health, infrastructure, and civilization.
The objective of food security is to realize stable and sustainable food security, both in the aspects of supply, distribution, and accessibility, as well as in the context of food independence, sovereignty, and security. Food security will be difficult to achieve if the food agriculture development system does not have the resilience to diversity and climate change. Increasing the adaptive capacity of food and agriculture requires a multi-disciplinary approach across sectors. The government's role is significant in developing and accelerating farming technologies, providing adequate agricultural infrastructure, developing agricultural climate information networks, developing farmer protection institutions against the negative impacts of extreme climate on farming, and farm input-output price policies are conducive to farmer income.
Policies and strategies for increasing farmers' adaptive capacity should synergies between adaptations independently developed by farmers and planned adaptations introduced by the government. Adaptation action to climate change should be located as an integral part of agricultural development programs, especially in the food sub-sector, to increase farmers' adaptive capacity to climate change. Given that adaptation actions' success lies in all interested parties' participation, there is a need to mainstream adaptation to climate change in food subsector policies at all levels.
The goal of energy independence is to reduce the share of oil consumption in the national energy consumption portfolio and increase non-petroleum energy. Both hydropower and biofuel sources are targeted to contribute around 8% of national energy fulfillment. Therefore, the adaptation action plan effort to guarantee the two energy sources' ability now and in the future in supporting national energy independence needs to be done. Thus the main targets of the National Action Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change sub-field of energy independence are: 1) development of energy sourced from hydropower and geothermal energy in regions with low climate risk with favorable ecosystem conditions, 2) development of plants for bioenergy (biomass and biofuels) with high productivity and climate stress resistance, 3) optimizing the utilization of organic waste for energy and gas production, especially in densely populated areas, and 4) expanding renewable energy sources in remote villages.
The objective of national ecosystem resilience is to preserve the sustainability of the forest ecosystem. The resilience of essential ecosystems from the impacts of climate change to maintain biodiversity and ecosystem services can be sustainable. Biodiversity as a core component in ecosystems, is a provider of environmental services that holds the key to ecosystem sustainability. Ecosystem services that play a role are service providers, regulators, culture, and support. The preservation of forest ecosystems, essential areas, and biodiversity will guarantee the availability of water and ecosystem services and become one of the key components towards the achievement of food security, energy independence, and the order of people's lives. To achieve common goals by reducing significant disturbance and damage to forest ecosystems, the main objectives of the National Action Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change for the field of ecosystem resilience are: 1) extensive reduction in damage to natural terrestrial and marine ecosystems by extreme climate events and climate change, 2) increasing the quality and quantity of coral reefs and forest cover in priority watershed areas, 3) declining levels of threat to critical species due to climate change, and 4) enhancing ecosystem resilience systems.
REFERENCES
Bappenas (2010). Indonesian Climate Change Sectoral Roadmap - ICCSR: Synthesis Report. National Development Planning Agency of the Republic of Indonesia. ISBN 978-979-3764-49-8.
Berina, D. and Wijayanti, P. (2012). Strategies and Adaptation Costs Of The Jakarta Community Towards The Impact Of Rob Floods Due To Climate Change. Presented at Conference: European Scientific Seminar, Wageningen, 2012.
Climate Transparency (2017). Transisi G20 Menuju Ekonomi Rendah Karbon 2017-Indonesia [G20 Transition to a Low Carbon Economy 2017-Indonesia]. Brown to Green Report
Hermanto (2013). Adaptation to Climate Change in the Agriculture Sector and the Effectiveness of Fiscal Instruments. Center of Economic and Development Study. Retrieved from http://ceds.fe.unpad.ac.id/publications/analisis-ceds/313-adaptasi-perubahan-ikilm-di-sektor-pertanan-dan-efektifitas-instrumen-fiskal.html
Knoema (2020). Indonesia - CO2 emissions. World Bank Data. Retrieved from https://knoema.com/atlas/Indonesia/CO2-emissions
IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, and New York, NY, USA.
Ministry of Agriculture (2011). General Guidelines for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Agricultural Sector. Agricultural Research and Development Agency. ISBN 978-602-9462-04-3
Ministry of Environment (2010). Indonesia Second National Communication: Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Jakarta.
Ministry of National Development Planning (2014). National Action Plan for Climate Change Adaptation (RAN-API). National Development Planning Agency of the Republic of Indonesia
Ministry of National Development Planning (2019). Rencana Pembangunan Jangka Menengah Nasional 2020-2024. [National Medium-Term Development Plan 2020-2024]. National Development Planning Agency of the Republic of IndonesiaNovita, D. (2018). Climate Change Adaptation Policy in Agriculture (Evaluation of Training of Trainers in Jeneponto Regency, South Sulawesi). AKP Journal, Volume 8, Number 1. Islamic University '45 Bekasi.
Presidential Regulation (2006). Republic of Indonesia Presidential Regulation No. 5 of 2006 concerning the National Energy Policy. Republic of Indonesia Press. Jakarta.
Yusuf, A.A., and Francisco, H. (2009). Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia. Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia (EEPSEA) Publisher.
Yusuf, A., Komarulzaman, A., Hermawan, W., Hartono, D., & Sjahrir, K. (2010). Scenarios for Climate Change Mitigation from the Energy Sector in Indonesia: The Role of Fiscal Instruments. Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies, no.201005. Padjadjaran Universty.
Integrating Indonesian Agriculture in Sectoral and National Adaptation Planning to Combat Climate Change
ABSTRACT
Climate change is a natural condition that is beyond human control and has an impact on various aspects of life. Agriculture is the sector most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. In Indonesia, climate change impacts have significant implications, especially for national food security and energy supply. Several studies state that without adaptation to climate change, estimates of food crop production in 2050 will experience a significant decline. The National Action Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change is part of Indonesia's national development framework. The government of Indonesia has also implemented the Paris Agreement to strengthen the global response to the threats of climate change, in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty. In terms of national development planning, the National Action Plan for Climate Change Adaptation is a thematic cross-sector plan that is more specific in preparing development plans with sustainable development at the national level. The National Action Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change aimed to provide direction to the Government Work Plan and the National Medium-Term Development Plan in the future so that it is more responsive to the impacts of climate change on agriculture and food security. This study discusses various national adaptation initiatives with detailed practical steps and the Indonesian government's principal regulations in the present and future.
INTRODUCTION
Indonesia is a developing country with a stable democracy and the fourth largest population in the world. Although economic growth has continued to increase over the past decade, around 11% of Indonesia's population is still below the poverty line. To alleviate poverty, the Government of Indonesia projects economic development to reach at least 5% per year to reduce the poverty rate to below 4% by 2025 as mandated in the Republic Indonesia Act 1945 Article 28 H Paragraph 1, including "that everyone has the right to a decent and healthy life." Considering the impact of climate change is beginning to be felt, Indonesia is still looking for a balance of development in the present and the future as well as poverty alleviation priorities.
Along with the development of industry and the economy in Indonesia, as a consequence, Indonesia produces carbon dioxide emissions, it turns out that Indonesia is among the largest emitters in the world. In 2018, Indonesia produced 557.5 million tons of CO2 emissions, which increased from 297.6 million tons in 1999 to 557.5 million tons in 2018, growing at an average annual rate of 3.40%, as shown in Figure 1.
In 2010, the Indonesian government launched a GHG emission reduction target of 26% by 2020 and up to 41% if there is international support, compared to the business as usual scenario in 2020. Under the leadership of President Joko Widodo, the current Indonesian government has determined nine national development priority actions as outlined in Nine Priorities Goal of President or Nawa Cita (Ministry of National Development Planning, 2019). Nawa Cita covers the protection of the whole nation in many sectors, such as improving life quality and human resources productivity. The Nawa Cita mission aligns with national commitments towards low carbon development and climate resilience, with climate change adaptation and mitigation as an integrated and cross-cutting priority in the National Medium-Term Development Plan (Bappenas, 2010).
Indonesia's geographical location is in the global sea conveyor belt (thermohaline circulation). Indonesia is the world's largest archipelagic country with a rich, tropical rainforest containing the world's natural and mineral resource reserves. Indonesia is also known for its role in efforts to deal with climate change. However, Indonesia is also vulnerable to natural disasters exacerbated by climate change, especially in low-lying areas throughout the archipelago. Therefore, Indonesia views that whole land and sea-based adaptation and mitigation efforts are a strategic consideration in achieving climate resilience related to food, water, and energy (Ministry of National Development Planning, 2019; Novita, 2018).
As shown in Figure 2, the Jakarta province, South Sumatra, West Java, East Java, and Bali regions are the most densely populated areas (nearly half of the total Indonesian population). These are categorized as very vulnerable to climate change and the most susceptible in the Southeast Asian region. According to the study of Berina and Wijayanti, 2012, flood events in densely populated areas mainly cause Jakarta's vulnerability despite having a high adaptive ability. A high adaptation strategy The Jakarta Provincial Government and the community carry out adaptation and mitigation to reduce the risk of flooding by building canals, improving city infrastructure, and building reservoirs.
The South Sumatra, Papua Region, especially Jayawijaya and Puncak Jaya, are also vulnerable, primarily because of their low adaptive ability and high frequency and exposure to landslides. Besides, the southern coastal area is affected by a significant rise in sea level (up to a height of 5 meters). Furthermore, the results of the identification of existing vulnerable areas need to continue to be deepened and synergized between sectors to get a more comprehensive picture.
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN INDONESIA
Regarding the Indonesian Ministry of National Development Planning report, many sectors are influenced by climate change: food security, energy, health, infrastructure, settlement, ecosystems, forestry, urban area, and coastal area (Climate Transparency, 2017; Ministry of National Development Planning, 2019). Table 1 shows the impacts of climate change on the aforementioned sectors. As can be seen, excessive rainfall can result in floods and landslides, but conversely, too little rainfall results in drought and decreased water availability. Declining water availability will affect the water supply for urban and agricultural areas. Flood events also usually cause losses in residential, municipal, and agricultural sectors. On the other hand, landslides also sometimes cause material and life losses in steep residential areas. The increase in sea surface temperature is suspected to damage coral reefs (coral bleaching) and change the ocean currents, which results in fish migration patterns in the sea, which will further affect the livelihood of fisher folk. Meanwhile, sea-level rise has resulted in the expansion of seawater inundation and abrasion in coastal areas and increased seawater intrusion to the mainland. All of them will negatively impact coastal communities, especially because some of Indonesia's population live in coastal areas, especially in coastal cities. Extreme climate and weather events are suspected of having a variety of spontaneous and massive impacts that need to be adapted in the form of disaster management efforts.
Table 1. Summary of the Impacts of Climate Change on Related Sectors
Climate Change Indicator
Potential Dangers
Sector
Food Security
Energy
Health
Infrastructure
Settlement
Ecosystems
Forestry
Urban
Coastal
Surface temperature
Increased evaporation which can increase the level of drought
V
V
V
V
Decline in agricultural production due to rising temperatures
V
V
Local warming due to high temperatures during the day
V
V
V
V
V
The spread of insect population vectors of disease
V
V
V
V
Increasing the spread of disease through the air medium
V
V
Changes in population development patterns and migration of pests and plant diseases
V
Rainfall
Drought due to the amount of deficit precipitation
V
V
V
V
V
V
Decreased water availability due to the amount of deficit precipitation
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
Flooding due to increased amount of water and rainfall intensity
V
V
V
V
V
V
Landslides
V
V
V
V
V
V
Decreased agricultural production due to fluctuating rainfall
V
V
Increased mosquito population of dengue fever due to unmanaged waterlogging
V
V
V
V
Increased spread of disease through the medium of air and waterlogging
V
V
V
V
Sea surface temperature
Changes in fish migration patterns caused by changes in circulation due to sea surface temperature
V
V
V
V
V
Damage to coral reefs
V
V
V
Sea surface height
The spread of sea water around the coast which causes the coastline retreat
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
Widespread sea water intrusion areas through groundwater and rivers
V
V
V
V
V
V
Extreme climate events
The occurrence of consecutive dry years
V
V
Changes in seasonal rainfall patterns
V
V
V
V
Increased chances of heavy rain, drought, storm surges and strong winds
V
V
V
V
Extreme weather events
Increased opportunities for erosion and abrasion that cause changes in coastline
V
V
V
Increased chances of a flash flood due to a storm surge
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
Increased opportunities for damage to public facilities and infrastructure due to disasters.
V
V
V
V
V
V
Source: Ministry of National Development Planning, 2014
GOVERNMENT ACTION PLAN FOR ADAPTATION OF THE AGRICULTURAL ECONOMY SUB-AREA SECTOR
The effectiveness of climate change management programs for each sector to support climate resilience development can be enhanced by building synergy in the adaptation of sub-sectoral agriculture economy activities. The foundation sector supports The National Action Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change in evolving economic resilience, such as food security, energy independence, and ecosystem resilience.
Food security
The main strategies to achieve the objectives of the National Action Plan for Climate Change Adaptation in the Field of Food Security are:
The implementation of these strategies conducted through 7 Main Clusters, namely:
Energy independence
Based on Presidential Regulation No. 5 of 2006 concerning the National Energy Policy, in 2025, the contribution of renewable energy as one source of non-petroleum energy will be increased to 17% of the fulfillment of national energy. Two renewable energy sources that are estimated to be significantly affected by climate change are hydropower and biofuel- which are targeted to contribute around 8% of total national energy sources.
The main strategies to achieve the goals of The National Action Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change in the area of energy independence are improvement and conservation of rain catchment areas in watersheds. The rain catchment area is the source of hydropower and geothermal energy generation, and optimization of the utilization of organic and biomass waste and development of energy sources from biofuels (Yusuf et al, 2010). The implementation of these strategies is through 4 main clusters, namely:
Ecosystem resilience
Strategies in building ecosystem resilience to climate change are directly related to interactions in social systems to form community resilience strategies. Ecosystem resilience is how to adapt to changes that occur, including an extreme drought that causes water limitations, changes in vegetation types due to weather patterns, and inundation due to sea-level rise that covers settlements or pond areas and agriculture. Environmental resilience is not intended to restore the changing ecological patterns but to seek mechanisms to overcome and avoid the same changes that occur in other environments. Strategies to achieve the main targets are carried out by:
POLICY DIRECTIONS AND TARGETS ON CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION ACTION PLAN
According to the National Medium-Term Development Plan, the Indonesian government's most important goal is to make low, lower-middle, upper-middle class income people prosperous, fair, and sustainable. The prediction of macroeconomic development target for the period 2020-2024 is that economic growth will increase by an average of 5.4-6.03% per year and GDP per capita growth of 4.0 ± 1%, which is driven by increased productivity, sustainable investment, improving the labor market, and improving the quality of human resources. With this economic growth target, the GNI per capita (Atlas Method) will increase to US$ 5,600-5,930 per capita by 2024. Besides maintaining economic growth, inflation stability remains a priority. The government targeted the inflation rate at 3.0 ± 1 % throughout 2020-2024 (Ministry of National Development Planning of the Republic of Indonesia, 2019).
Climate change has a significant impact on financial stability and efforts to achieve economic development goals. The implementation of the field of national economic stability and security emphasizes aspects of food security, energy independence, and ecosystems (Ministry of Agriculture, 2011). The adaptation efforts are adjustments in ecological, social, and economic systems in response to climate change impacts that have already occurred or speculated to occur. The response refers to processes, practices, and structures to reduce potential losses and take advantage of changes caused by climate change. Adaptation efforts to respond to climate change are often associated with reducing vulnerability (Hermanto, 2013; Ministry of Agriculture, 2011). The vulnerability of a system to the effects of climate change is followed by three factors: the level of exposure; the level of sensitivity; and adaptive capacity. The level of exposure indicates degree, duration, and magnitude of the system's opportunity to come in contact with shocks or disturbances. The level of sensitivity is an internal condition of the system strongly influenced by the human condition and the environment. The human condition is the social and human levels themselves, such as population, institutions, economic structures, and others. In contrast, environmental conditions are a combination of biophysical and natural conditions such as soil, water, climate, minerals, and ecosystem structure and function. Human conditions and the environment determine the adaptive capacity of a system strongly influenced by climate diversity.
Adaptive capacity shows the ability of a system to adapt to climate change to reduce the potential adverse impacts. Climate change adaptation efforts are to increase the resilience of a system to the impact of climate change. Resilience refers to the understanding of the ability of social and ecological systems to absorb disturbances. In contrast, the system retains its structure and function—many efforts to build system resilience focus on the capacity to absorb disturbances and maintain system functioning, namely the ability for renewal, restructuring, and system development. Understanding it will provide a reference on how to direct and allocate resources and build capacity at the local, regional, and national levels.
By paying attention to the understanding of climate change adaptation and its objectives, the adaptation is an effort to increase the resilience of a system to the impacts of climate change. So that climate change adaptation in Indonesia since 2014 to the next upcoming years will follow:
By paying attention to sectors and aspects of development affected by climate change, to ensure national development goals with the impacts of climate change, resilience in the economic, social, and environmental sectors are the key factors. Besides, given that Indonesia is an island nation that is vulnerable to climate change, resistance in particular areas such as small islands, coastal and urban areas is also needed. Thus, in this regard, the National Action Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change Strategic Targets is directed at:
CONCLUSION
The National Action Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change does not become a separate document with its formal legal strength. It becomes the primary input and an integral part of national development planning documents and ministry or institutional planning. The National Action Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change is also a reference for local governments in preparing the strategy or regional action plan for adaptation to climate change as a direction in preparing development planning documents that are resistant to climate change. For the implementation of climate change adaptation in the regions, it is necessary to prepare a regional action plan for climate change adaptation at the provincial level, which is the responsibility of each area with coordination from the Ministry of Home Affairs. The regional action plan for climate change adaptation is prepared by involving relevant technical agencies and following regional development priorities based on the capacity of the regional budget and the community. The government prepares action programs in the National Action Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change for several subsectors. In this study, it focuses more on economic resilience as the government prioritizes. Indonesia's economic resilience is determined by food security, energy independence, ecosystem resilience, which play a role in supporting public health, infrastructure, and civilization.
The objective of food security is to realize stable and sustainable food security, both in the aspects of supply, distribution, and accessibility, as well as in the context of food independence, sovereignty, and security. Food security will be difficult to achieve if the food agriculture development system does not have the resilience to diversity and climate change. Increasing the adaptive capacity of food and agriculture requires a multi-disciplinary approach across sectors. The government's role is significant in developing and accelerating farming technologies, providing adequate agricultural infrastructure, developing agricultural climate information networks, developing farmer protection institutions against the negative impacts of extreme climate on farming, and farm input-output price policies are conducive to farmer income.
Policies and strategies for increasing farmers' adaptive capacity should synergies between adaptations independently developed by farmers and planned adaptations introduced by the government. Adaptation action to climate change should be located as an integral part of agricultural development programs, especially in the food sub-sector, to increase farmers' adaptive capacity to climate change. Given that adaptation actions' success lies in all interested parties' participation, there is a need to mainstream adaptation to climate change in food subsector policies at all levels.
The goal of energy independence is to reduce the share of oil consumption in the national energy consumption portfolio and increase non-petroleum energy. Both hydropower and biofuel sources are targeted to contribute around 8% of national energy fulfillment. Therefore, the adaptation action plan effort to guarantee the two energy sources' ability now and in the future in supporting national energy independence needs to be done. Thus the main targets of the National Action Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change sub-field of energy independence are: 1) development of energy sourced from hydropower and geothermal energy in regions with low climate risk with favorable ecosystem conditions, 2) development of plants for bioenergy (biomass and biofuels) with high productivity and climate stress resistance, 3) optimizing the utilization of organic waste for energy and gas production, especially in densely populated areas, and 4) expanding renewable energy sources in remote villages.
The objective of national ecosystem resilience is to preserve the sustainability of the forest ecosystem. The resilience of essential ecosystems from the impacts of climate change to maintain biodiversity and ecosystem services can be sustainable. Biodiversity as a core component in ecosystems, is a provider of environmental services that holds the key to ecosystem sustainability. Ecosystem services that play a role are service providers, regulators, culture, and support. The preservation of forest ecosystems, essential areas, and biodiversity will guarantee the availability of water and ecosystem services and become one of the key components towards the achievement of food security, energy independence, and the order of people's lives. To achieve common goals by reducing significant disturbance and damage to forest ecosystems, the main objectives of the National Action Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change for the field of ecosystem resilience are: 1) extensive reduction in damage to natural terrestrial and marine ecosystems by extreme climate events and climate change, 2) increasing the quality and quantity of coral reefs and forest cover in priority watershed areas, 3) declining levels of threat to critical species due to climate change, and 4) enhancing ecosystem resilience systems.
REFERENCES
Bappenas (2010). Indonesian Climate Change Sectoral Roadmap - ICCSR: Synthesis Report. National Development Planning Agency of the Republic of Indonesia. ISBN 978-979-3764-49-8.
Berina, D. and Wijayanti, P. (2012). Strategies and Adaptation Costs Of The Jakarta Community Towards The Impact Of Rob Floods Due To Climate Change. Presented at Conference: European Scientific Seminar, Wageningen, 2012.
Climate Transparency (2017). Transisi G20 Menuju Ekonomi Rendah Karbon 2017-Indonesia [G20 Transition to a Low Carbon Economy 2017-Indonesia]. Brown to Green Report
Hermanto (2013). Adaptation to Climate Change in the Agriculture Sector and the Effectiveness of Fiscal Instruments. Center of Economic and Development Study. Retrieved from http://ceds.fe.unpad.ac.id/publications/analisis-ceds/313-adaptasi-perubahan-ikilm-di-sektor-pertanan-dan-efektifitas-instrumen-fiskal.html
Knoema (2020). Indonesia - CO2 emissions. World Bank Data. Retrieved from https://knoema.com/atlas/Indonesia/CO2-emissions
IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, and New York, NY, USA.
Ministry of Agriculture (2011). General Guidelines for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Agricultural Sector. Agricultural Research and Development Agency. ISBN 978-602-9462-04-3
Ministry of Environment (2010). Indonesia Second National Communication: Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Jakarta.
Ministry of National Development Planning (2014). National Action Plan for Climate Change Adaptation (RAN-API). National Development Planning Agency of the Republic of Indonesia
Ministry of National Development Planning (2019). Rencana Pembangunan Jangka Menengah Nasional 2020-2024. [National Medium-Term Development Plan 2020-2024]. National Development Planning Agency of the Republic of IndonesiaNovita, D. (2018). Climate Change Adaptation Policy in Agriculture (Evaluation of Training of Trainers in Jeneponto Regency, South Sulawesi). AKP Journal, Volume 8, Number 1. Islamic University '45 Bekasi.
Presidential Regulation (2006). Republic of Indonesia Presidential Regulation No. 5 of 2006 concerning the National Energy Policy. Republic of Indonesia Press. Jakarta.
Yusuf, A.A., and Francisco, H. (2009). Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia. Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia (EEPSEA) Publisher.
Yusuf, A., Komarulzaman, A., Hermawan, W., Hartono, D., & Sjahrir, K. (2010). Scenarios for Climate Change Mitigation from the Energy Sector in Indonesia: The Role of Fiscal Instruments. Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies, no.201005. Padjadjaran Universty.