ABSTRACT
This study aims to determine the priority of policies and how to maximize profitability and problem-solving with regard to agricultural transition by farmers in order to adapt to droughts and salinity intrusion in the fresh-brackish water within inter-facing zone in the Mekong Delta. Results of the analysis show that farmers shifted from rice and sugarcane production to fruits (freshwater) or shrimp (brackish or saline water). More resource-rich farmers tended to gradually intensify fruit or shrimp production for increased farm income, which would cause potential economic risks from disease outbreaks or unstable market prices of farm products. The limited capacity of farmers for farm management, financial resources, and information access are considered significant constraints for adaptive agriculture production in the future. Local governments are implementing a variety of solutions, including advanced farming technologies, production services, and technical and socio-economic infrastructure systems to foster the adaptive capacity of agricultural commodities.
Keywords: adaptive capacity, agricultural transition, drought and salinity, Mekong Delta, policy.
INTRODUCTION
Drought and salinity intrusion (hereafter referred to as drought-salinity) in the dry season is a normal state in the coastal sub-region of the Mekong Delta (MD) (Loc, H.H. et al., 2021). However, in the past 10 years and predicted in the future, drought-salinity has become more abnormal with increasingly severe consequences due to its frequency and intensity. Two main factors govern this issue: (1) natural factors: unusual weather, climate, and sea level rise, and (2) socio-economic factors affecting the main river flow causing salinity intrusion (Vu, D. T. et al., 2018 and D. Binh D. et al., 2020). These influencing factors occur on different spatial scales and have interwoven cumulative impacts, causing more adverse effects (A. Smajgl et al., 2015).
Since 2013, the government has adopted a strategic orientation and implemented programs and projects related to the economic transition of agriculture and rural areas, sustainable development of the MD region to adapt to climate change (CC) and sea level rise (Prime Minister, 2020). Local authorities and the farming community have been implementing these orientations. The fresh-brackish ecological boundary sub-region is unpredictable due to the influence of drought-salinity. The area of this sub-region changes between the dry and rainy seasons and between normal years and abnormal drought-salinity years, causing instability for production (Prime Minister, 2013).
Many previous studies have evaluated and proposed the adaptation of agricultural land use to brackish/saline conditions. Most studies focused on household-level production (Renaud F.G. et al., 2015). Farmers' adaptation strategies are not only about financial or production techniques but also related to livelihoods and agricultural value chains, which are broader than the household level (Binh N.T. et al., 2021). The question arises as to what the advantages (including opportunities) and difficulties (including challenges) for adaptive transition solutions of the farming community in the sub-region are, and how they relate to macro policy concerns and actual policy implementation at the local level. Therefore, the study aims to: (1) analyze the trends of agricultural land use transition at the sub-region and community levels; and (2) identify the adaptation strategies of the community and relate them to macro policy orientations and local policy implementation. The research results help identify the need for further in-depth research as well as improve the effectiveness of policy implementation in local practical conditions. The study was conducted in 2020, collecting detailed information focusing on six districts of Ben Tre and Soc Trang provinces.
SUBJECTS AND METHODS
Subjects
Three main research subjects are: (1) changes in agricultural land use patterns at the fresh-brackish water interface sub-region from 2000-2019; (2) production transitions and adaptive solutions in the community and identifying the relationship between influencing factors - production changes and consequences of changes - adaptive solutions in the future; and (3) policy concerns when effectively implementing adaptive agricultural production transition policies in practice.
Methods
The years 2016 and 2020 were identified as extreme drought-salinity years. The fresh-brackish water interface sub-region was identified based on differences in saline water concentrations between the years 2000 (normal year) and 2020 (drought-salinity year), causing difficulties for agricultural production (Figure 1). The identified sub-region covers a total area of about 800,000 hectares distributed across 62 districts of 9 coastal provinces. This sub-region is assumed to have undergone production transitions in the past and needs adaptive solutions in the future.
Detailed studies were conducted in Ben Tre and Soc Trang provinces - two localities considered representative of the sub-region's agricultural ecosystem. Each province selected three representative districts, with agricultural ecosystems ranging from sweeter to more brackish to saline; in corresponding order in each province: (1) Chau Thanh, (2) Mo Cay Nam, and (3) Ba Tri (Ben Tre province); (4) Ke Sach, (5) My Tu, and (6) Tran De (Soc Trang province) (according to the corresponding order in Figure 1). Each district selected one commune, and each commune selected one representative hamlet to collect information from the community.
Data Collection
Sub-regional District-level Statistical Data
To analyze changes in agricultural land use patterns at the sub-regional level, statistical data on the area of crop and aquaculture production at the district level for the years 2000, 2010, 2015, and 2019 were collected and analyzed (Government, 2018). The main production objects include high-yield rice (winter-spring, summer-autumn, and autumn-winter crops; seasonal rice), fruit trees, vegetables/crops, sugarcane, and aquaculture. Coconut gardens were not analyzed in this report. Data from the statistical yearbooks were verified with data from the district Statistical Office (Government, 2015).
Community Group Discussions
At each research point, three main farmer groups were selected to participate in group discussions: (1) well-off/rich, (2) average, and (3) poor/near-poor. The criteria used were related to the five livelihood resources of the household (Prime Minister, 2014), and the multidimensional poverty standard (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, 2014). Based on the list of households in the hamlet, three knowledgeable individuals about the hamlet (Hamlet Head, Farmer Association, and a farmer) independently classified each household into one of the three above groups, then agreed on a common classification result (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, 2014).
Based on the classification results, 8-10 households were randomly selected from each group to participate in the discussions. A total of 168 members participated in the discussions with open-ended questions. The discussion included three groups of information: (1) changes in land use patterns during the period 2010-2020, causes, and consequences; (2) uncertain factors that greatly affect agricultural production and farmers' livelihoods in the next 5-10 years, what needs to be changed to adapt, and (3) advantages and difficulties of adaptive solutions, based on the five livelihood resources. The importance of advantages or difficulties was assessed based on a 5-point scale (1= very unimportant, 5= very important). The “driving factor – pressure – state – impact – response” framework was applied to analyze the relationship between driving factors – production changes and consequences of changes – adaptive solutions in the future.
Local Action Plans Implemented and Planned until 2025
Based on the annual sector reports of the District Agriculture and Rural Development Office and the District Natural Resources and Environment Office, legal documents at the government and provincial levels were used as a basis for action plans at the district level. At the government level, localities relied on 11 decrees, resolutions, and decisions related to socio-economic development, agricultural and rural development, and climate change adaptation in the MD region from 2012 to 2020 (Prime Minister, 2020). At the provincial level, five groups of action plans or development plans include: (1) agricultural sector restructuring; (2) climate change action plan; (3) implementation of Resolution 120/NQ-CP; (4) new rural development; and (5) socio-economic development planning.
The main policy concerns from local policy and action plans were identified through qualitative data analysis with Nvivo software (Hilal, A.H. et al., 2013), and compared with the advantages and difficulties of adaptive solutions from community perceptions.
RESEARCH RESULTS
Agricultural production transition at the sub-regional level
From 2000 to 2019, the cultivated area of rice and sugarcane decreased, while the area of vegetables/crops, fruit trees, and aquaculture increased (Figure 2). Farmers reduced the area of summer-autumn and autumn-winter rice and seasonal rice to switch to winter-spring rice to reduce risk and gain higher profits. The total rice growing area decreased by about 127,000 hectares, mainly in the periods 2000-2010 and 2015-2019. During 2000-2019, the contribution of rice cultivation area in the total agricultural land area decreased from about 20% to 17%, and sugarcane decreased from 3% to 1%. In contrast, the contribution of the cultivation area of vegetables/crops, fruit trees, and aquaculture increased from 3.3%, 6.0%, and 6.4% to 10.1%, 10.9%, and 9.9%, respectively.
Agricultural production transition at the community level
The analysis of agricultural production transition from the community explains the trends at the sub-regional level (Figure 3). In the Central columm of the box we see currently in the the sub-region, there are four main types of cultivation that have changed significantly: (1) fruit gardens, coconut; (2) high-yield rice (2-3 crops/year); (3) sugarcane; (4) rice-shrimp rotation. These cultivations type depend on the degree of salinity presented in the vertical axe. Since 2010, especially after 2016 (drought-salinity), farmers have transitioned production in two directions: (1) based on freshwater ecology, utilizing the irrigation system; and (2) based on brackish/saline ecology, adapting to nature. Direction (1) is commonly applied near the freshwater sub-region, when farmers want to stabilize production and reduce economic risks by diversifying production at the household level. This direction of diversification presented in green color in the context of sweet water availability. Direction (2) occurs widely, from the fresh-brackish to brackish-saline boundary, when farmers want to increase production profits and accept economic risks from shrimp farming. Farmers have mainly shifted the sugarcane area to shrimp farming due to the drop in sugarcane prices. This direction presented in blue color, when the salinity intrusion became stronger.
The general trend is to gradually intensify fruit gardens or shrimp to increase income when initial success is achieved. Production transition on an individual scale causes conflicts in the use of land and water resources between "fresh" and "brackish/saline."
Influencing factors and consequences of production transition and adaptive solutions
The agricultural production transition of the community is due to positive and adverse influencing factors and pressures. Five main influencing factors including the natural environment, input and agricultural product markets, rural labor migration, science and technology, information, and policies will cause pressures and agricultural production transitions (Figure 4). Policy implementation on agricultural and rural development, climate change adaptation, and sea-level rise promotes public investments in infrastructure, irrigation, science and technology transfer, and information technology at the local level.
Farmers diversify production or intensify fruit trees or shrimps, or connect with service enterprises, apply science and technology, and mechanization to reduce risks and adapt to the uncertain natural environment and supply-demand market.
Production transition is mainly new, from after 2016, primarily on an individual scale and reactive. Households with weak resources and wanting to stabilize income diversify production. Conversely, households with more resources want to intensify fruit and shrimp cultivation. Due to the migration of young rural labor, local agricultural labor tends to be older.
The farming community has adaptive solutions to influencing factors and pressures in the future. Intensifying and specializing in applying adaptive farming techniques to drought-salinity are given more attention (e.g., crop varieties, fertilizers, drought-salinity resistance enhancers, freshwater storage). Besides, diversifying production to reduce economic risks in both freshwater and brackish ecosystems. At the same time, linking production and services to improve the value chain and quality of agricultural products, applying mechanization, and using information technology to improve production and services.
To promote future adaptive solutions, the community identified 13 main advantages, belonging to five livelihood resource groups (natural, human, physical, financial, and social) (Figure 5A). However, farmers did not assess these advantages as very important. Production management skills, the ability to increase production profits, and job creation opportunities were not highly rated. Poorer households did not consider production diversification and technical information as important advantages but highly rated government rural development and poverty reduction policies.
Similarly, the community proposed 13 difficulties for implementing adaptive solutions, most of which were rated as important (Figure 5B). The uncertain natural environment (drought-salinity, diseases), limited adaptive human resources, and uncertain agricultural markets are significant difficulties. However, the importance of difficulties varies between well-off and poorer households. Well-off households are more concerned about linkages and cooperation, and market information; while poorer households focus more on production investment capital.
Policy concerns
Policy concerns at the government level and local action plans cover all major drivers and constraints of community adaptive solutions (Figure 6). The greatest concern is the uncertain natural environment, technical-economic infrastructure, agricultural markets and services, spatial planning, and synchronously implementing groups of solutions. However, local action plan implementation focuses on sector management and administrative scope rather than the value chain of the industry from input services, production, services, and product processing to product trade. Inter-sectoral coordination at each level of state management to implement synchronously the group of solutions to improve household livelihoods and agricultural product industry development as policy concerns and households is still lacking. Moreover, agricultural industries have a range that crosses administrative boundaries at all levels. For example: the coconut and fruit tree industries are not only within the scope of Ben Tre province but are also related to raw materials and services in Tra Vinh and Tien Giang provinces; or the rice and shrimp industries are not only within the scope of Soc Trang but are also related to Bac Lieu province; similarly, for the relationship between districts within the same province. Therefore, implementing macro policies also needs to consider the spatial scope of agricultural product industries rather than administrative spatial scope. The approach to developing agricultural value chains and coordination between sector management and localities in policy implementation plans is rarely mentioned officially.
DISCUSSION
Agricultural production transition in the fresh-brackish water interface sub-region follows the government's direction (Government, 2020), shifting rice production to other crops or brackish/saline water aquaculture effectively. The influencing factors and pressures of the transition are not only natural factors (drought-salinity) but also intertwined socio-economic factors (Nhan D. K. et al., 2007). Farmers' production transition and adaptive solutions aim to intensify to increase profits when resources are sufficient. Household livelihood resources are significant for adaptive capacity (Nhan D. K. et al., 2007). Farmers’ production transitions are reactive and may transfer economic damage risks from drought-salinity to risks from diseases or unstable markets for fruit trees or shrimp.
Livelihood resources recognized as advantages for adaptive solutions are not highly evaluated. Policy impacts, the role of local government/political-social organizations are important for poverty reduction goals but may not be sufficient to promote the agricultural product industry's economy through value chain and supply chain improvements (Agramont A. et al., 2021), especially for wealthier farmers. Difficulties need attention to improve to enhance farmers' adaptive capacity, including human and financial resources, marketization of agricultural products. Therefore, production management capacity, organizational linkage of the entire value chain to meet the market is more important than individual farming techniques (Agramont A. et al., 2021).
Macro policy issues at the government level related to agricultural and rural development in the MD region have covered policy concerns about community advantages and difficulties. Micro-level concerns such as credit, farmer capacity, mechanization, are mentioned in specialized sector action plans. However, more important is the synchronous implementation of solution groups from legal documents at the local level through coordinated synchronization between specialized sectors and localities based on the agricultural product industry's economic approach.
A single solution cannot solve farmers' problems but requires a group of integrated solutions. Not only engineering solutions but also non-engineering solutions. For example: Developing farmers' adaptive capacity to successfully transition agricultural production according to the government's direction requires not only irrigation infrastructure, technical solutions but also solutions related to household livelihood capacity, especially for poor farmers, such as educational level and technical skills, production management, information and credit access, linkage with input and output services. Effective synchronous implementation of specialized sector legal/policy documents at the local level based on the agricultural product industry's economic approach is necessary. This meets macro policy goals and practical needs to improve household livelihood capacity. When the technical-economic-social environment is favorable combined with farmers having sufficient management capacity, they can manage adaptive production, improving the agricultural product value chain they produce (Agramont A. et al., 2021). During the research period, provinces are in the early stages of integrated planning implementation. Hopefully, the approach and discussed concerns will be considered in the integrated planning of the provinces.
CONCLUSION
In the fresh-brackish water boundary sub-region of the MD, specifically in Ben Tre and Soc Trang provinces, farmers shift production according to the governments and local directions. The transition follows two different directions: (1) freshwater ecology for diversification and stable production, and (2) brackish/saline ecology for increased production profits from shrimp farming. Farmers tend to intensify fruit trees and shrimp when initial success is achieved. This may shift risks from drought-salinity to risks from diseases or unstable agricultural markets.
Production transition is influenced by intertwined natural and socio-economic factors and pressures. Production transition and adaptive solutions not only relate to production techniques but also link production and services to improve the agricultural value chain. The importance of drivers and constraints of adaptive solutions varies according to household resources. Constraints on production management capacity, financial resources, and information access are considered important.
Effective synchronous implementation of specialized sector legal/policy documents at the local level based on the agricultural product industry's economic approach through coordination between sector management and localities is necessary. The degree of adaptation and water resource management needs further research and evaluation to keep it going forward.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The research was conducted with funding from the project "Research on adaptive strategies for sustainable use of natural resources in the context of climate change and environmental degradation" (E12), under the project "Upgrading Can Tho University" (VN14-P6) funded by the Japanese Government's Official Development Assistance (ODA). Sincere gratitude from the group of authors.
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Adaptive Agricultural Transitions to Droughts and Salinity Intrusion in the Mekong Delta: Policy Issues
ABSTRACT
This study aims to determine the priority of policies and how to maximize profitability and problem-solving with regard to agricultural transition by farmers in order to adapt to droughts and salinity intrusion in the fresh-brackish water within inter-facing zone in the Mekong Delta. Results of the analysis show that farmers shifted from rice and sugarcane production to fruits (freshwater) or shrimp (brackish or saline water). More resource-rich farmers tended to gradually intensify fruit or shrimp production for increased farm income, which would cause potential economic risks from disease outbreaks or unstable market prices of farm products. The limited capacity of farmers for farm management, financial resources, and information access are considered significant constraints for adaptive agriculture production in the future. Local governments are implementing a variety of solutions, including advanced farming technologies, production services, and technical and socio-economic infrastructure systems to foster the adaptive capacity of agricultural commodities.
Keywords: adaptive capacity, agricultural transition, drought and salinity, Mekong Delta, policy.
INTRODUCTION
Drought and salinity intrusion (hereafter referred to as drought-salinity) in the dry season is a normal state in the coastal sub-region of the Mekong Delta (MD) (Loc, H.H. et al., 2021). However, in the past 10 years and predicted in the future, drought-salinity has become more abnormal with increasingly severe consequences due to its frequency and intensity. Two main factors govern this issue: (1) natural factors: unusual weather, climate, and sea level rise, and (2) socio-economic factors affecting the main river flow causing salinity intrusion (Vu, D. T. et al., 2018 and D. Binh D. et al., 2020). These influencing factors occur on different spatial scales and have interwoven cumulative impacts, causing more adverse effects (A. Smajgl et al., 2015).
Since 2013, the government has adopted a strategic orientation and implemented programs and projects related to the economic transition of agriculture and rural areas, sustainable development of the MD region to adapt to climate change (CC) and sea level rise (Prime Minister, 2020). Local authorities and the farming community have been implementing these orientations. The fresh-brackish ecological boundary sub-region is unpredictable due to the influence of drought-salinity. The area of this sub-region changes between the dry and rainy seasons and between normal years and abnormal drought-salinity years, causing instability for production (Prime Minister, 2013).
Many previous studies have evaluated and proposed the adaptation of agricultural land use to brackish/saline conditions. Most studies focused on household-level production (Renaud F.G. et al., 2015). Farmers' adaptation strategies are not only about financial or production techniques but also related to livelihoods and agricultural value chains, which are broader than the household level (Binh N.T. et al., 2021). The question arises as to what the advantages (including opportunities) and difficulties (including challenges) for adaptive transition solutions of the farming community in the sub-region are, and how they relate to macro policy concerns and actual policy implementation at the local level. Therefore, the study aims to: (1) analyze the trends of agricultural land use transition at the sub-region and community levels; and (2) identify the adaptation strategies of the community and relate them to macro policy orientations and local policy implementation. The research results help identify the need for further in-depth research as well as improve the effectiveness of policy implementation in local practical conditions. The study was conducted in 2020, collecting detailed information focusing on six districts of Ben Tre and Soc Trang provinces.
SUBJECTS AND METHODS
Subjects
Three main research subjects are: (1) changes in agricultural land use patterns at the fresh-brackish water interface sub-region from 2000-2019; (2) production transitions and adaptive solutions in the community and identifying the relationship between influencing factors - production changes and consequences of changes - adaptive solutions in the future; and (3) policy concerns when effectively implementing adaptive agricultural production transition policies in practice.
Methods
The years 2016 and 2020 were identified as extreme drought-salinity years. The fresh-brackish water interface sub-region was identified based on differences in saline water concentrations between the years 2000 (normal year) and 2020 (drought-salinity year), causing difficulties for agricultural production (Figure 1). The identified sub-region covers a total area of about 800,000 hectares distributed across 62 districts of 9 coastal provinces. This sub-region is assumed to have undergone production transitions in the past and needs adaptive solutions in the future.
Detailed studies were conducted in Ben Tre and Soc Trang provinces - two localities considered representative of the sub-region's agricultural ecosystem. Each province selected three representative districts, with agricultural ecosystems ranging from sweeter to more brackish to saline; in corresponding order in each province: (1) Chau Thanh, (2) Mo Cay Nam, and (3) Ba Tri (Ben Tre province); (4) Ke Sach, (5) My Tu, and (6) Tran De (Soc Trang province) (according to the corresponding order in Figure 1). Each district selected one commune, and each commune selected one representative hamlet to collect information from the community.
Data Collection
Sub-regional District-level Statistical Data
To analyze changes in agricultural land use patterns at the sub-regional level, statistical data on the area of crop and aquaculture production at the district level for the years 2000, 2010, 2015, and 2019 were collected and analyzed (Government, 2018). The main production objects include high-yield rice (winter-spring, summer-autumn, and autumn-winter crops; seasonal rice), fruit trees, vegetables/crops, sugarcane, and aquaculture. Coconut gardens were not analyzed in this report. Data from the statistical yearbooks were verified with data from the district Statistical Office (Government, 2015).
Community Group Discussions
At each research point, three main farmer groups were selected to participate in group discussions: (1) well-off/rich, (2) average, and (3) poor/near-poor. The criteria used were related to the five livelihood resources of the household (Prime Minister, 2014), and the multidimensional poverty standard (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, 2014). Based on the list of households in the hamlet, three knowledgeable individuals about the hamlet (Hamlet Head, Farmer Association, and a farmer) independently classified each household into one of the three above groups, then agreed on a common classification result (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, 2014).
Based on the classification results, 8-10 households were randomly selected from each group to participate in the discussions. A total of 168 members participated in the discussions with open-ended questions. The discussion included three groups of information: (1) changes in land use patterns during the period 2010-2020, causes, and consequences; (2) uncertain factors that greatly affect agricultural production and farmers' livelihoods in the next 5-10 years, what needs to be changed to adapt, and (3) advantages and difficulties of adaptive solutions, based on the five livelihood resources. The importance of advantages or difficulties was assessed based on a 5-point scale (1= very unimportant, 5= very important). The “driving factor – pressure – state – impact – response” framework was applied to analyze the relationship between driving factors – production changes and consequences of changes – adaptive solutions in the future.
Local Action Plans Implemented and Planned until 2025
Based on the annual sector reports of the District Agriculture and Rural Development Office and the District Natural Resources and Environment Office, legal documents at the government and provincial levels were used as a basis for action plans at the district level. At the government level, localities relied on 11 decrees, resolutions, and decisions related to socio-economic development, agricultural and rural development, and climate change adaptation in the MD region from 2012 to 2020 (Prime Minister, 2020). At the provincial level, five groups of action plans or development plans include: (1) agricultural sector restructuring; (2) climate change action plan; (3) implementation of Resolution 120/NQ-CP; (4) new rural development; and (5) socio-economic development planning.
The main policy concerns from local policy and action plans were identified through qualitative data analysis with Nvivo software (Hilal, A.H. et al., 2013), and compared with the advantages and difficulties of adaptive solutions from community perceptions.
RESEARCH RESULTS
Agricultural production transition at the sub-regional level
From 2000 to 2019, the cultivated area of rice and sugarcane decreased, while the area of vegetables/crops, fruit trees, and aquaculture increased (Figure 2). Farmers reduced the area of summer-autumn and autumn-winter rice and seasonal rice to switch to winter-spring rice to reduce risk and gain higher profits. The total rice growing area decreased by about 127,000 hectares, mainly in the periods 2000-2010 and 2015-2019. During 2000-2019, the contribution of rice cultivation area in the total agricultural land area decreased from about 20% to 17%, and sugarcane decreased from 3% to 1%. In contrast, the contribution of the cultivation area of vegetables/crops, fruit trees, and aquaculture increased from 3.3%, 6.0%, and 6.4% to 10.1%, 10.9%, and 9.9%, respectively.
Agricultural production transition at the community level
The analysis of agricultural production transition from the community explains the trends at the sub-regional level (Figure 3). In the Central columm of the box we see currently in the the sub-region, there are four main types of cultivation that have changed significantly: (1) fruit gardens, coconut; (2) high-yield rice (2-3 crops/year); (3) sugarcane; (4) rice-shrimp rotation. These cultivations type depend on the degree of salinity presented in the vertical axe. Since 2010, especially after 2016 (drought-salinity), farmers have transitioned production in two directions: (1) based on freshwater ecology, utilizing the irrigation system; and (2) based on brackish/saline ecology, adapting to nature. Direction (1) is commonly applied near the freshwater sub-region, when farmers want to stabilize production and reduce economic risks by diversifying production at the household level. This direction of diversification presented in green color in the context of sweet water availability. Direction (2) occurs widely, from the fresh-brackish to brackish-saline boundary, when farmers want to increase production profits and accept economic risks from shrimp farming. Farmers have mainly shifted the sugarcane area to shrimp farming due to the drop in sugarcane prices. This direction presented in blue color, when the salinity intrusion became stronger.
The general trend is to gradually intensify fruit gardens or shrimp to increase income when initial success is achieved. Production transition on an individual scale causes conflicts in the use of land and water resources between "fresh" and "brackish/saline."
Influencing factors and consequences of production transition and adaptive solutions
The agricultural production transition of the community is due to positive and adverse influencing factors and pressures. Five main influencing factors including the natural environment, input and agricultural product markets, rural labor migration, science and technology, information, and policies will cause pressures and agricultural production transitions (Figure 4). Policy implementation on agricultural and rural development, climate change adaptation, and sea-level rise promotes public investments in infrastructure, irrigation, science and technology transfer, and information technology at the local level.
Farmers diversify production or intensify fruit trees or shrimps, or connect with service enterprises, apply science and technology, and mechanization to reduce risks and adapt to the uncertain natural environment and supply-demand market.
Production transition is mainly new, from after 2016, primarily on an individual scale and reactive. Households with weak resources and wanting to stabilize income diversify production. Conversely, households with more resources want to intensify fruit and shrimp cultivation. Due to the migration of young rural labor, local agricultural labor tends to be older.
The farming community has adaptive solutions to influencing factors and pressures in the future. Intensifying and specializing in applying adaptive farming techniques to drought-salinity are given more attention (e.g., crop varieties, fertilizers, drought-salinity resistance enhancers, freshwater storage). Besides, diversifying production to reduce economic risks in both freshwater and brackish ecosystems. At the same time, linking production and services to improve the value chain and quality of agricultural products, applying mechanization, and using information technology to improve production and services.
To promote future adaptive solutions, the community identified 13 main advantages, belonging to five livelihood resource groups (natural, human, physical, financial, and social) (Figure 5A). However, farmers did not assess these advantages as very important. Production management skills, the ability to increase production profits, and job creation opportunities were not highly rated. Poorer households did not consider production diversification and technical information as important advantages but highly rated government rural development and poverty reduction policies.
Similarly, the community proposed 13 difficulties for implementing adaptive solutions, most of which were rated as important (Figure 5B). The uncertain natural environment (drought-salinity, diseases), limited adaptive human resources, and uncertain agricultural markets are significant difficulties. However, the importance of difficulties varies between well-off and poorer households. Well-off households are more concerned about linkages and cooperation, and market information; while poorer households focus more on production investment capital.
Policy concerns
Policy concerns at the government level and local action plans cover all major drivers and constraints of community adaptive solutions (Figure 6). The greatest concern is the uncertain natural environment, technical-economic infrastructure, agricultural markets and services, spatial planning, and synchronously implementing groups of solutions. However, local action plan implementation focuses on sector management and administrative scope rather than the value chain of the industry from input services, production, services, and product processing to product trade. Inter-sectoral coordination at each level of state management to implement synchronously the group of solutions to improve household livelihoods and agricultural product industry development as policy concerns and households is still lacking. Moreover, agricultural industries have a range that crosses administrative boundaries at all levels. For example: the coconut and fruit tree industries are not only within the scope of Ben Tre province but are also related to raw materials and services in Tra Vinh and Tien Giang provinces; or the rice and shrimp industries are not only within the scope of Soc Trang but are also related to Bac Lieu province; similarly, for the relationship between districts within the same province. Therefore, implementing macro policies also needs to consider the spatial scope of agricultural product industries rather than administrative spatial scope. The approach to developing agricultural value chains and coordination between sector management and localities in policy implementation plans is rarely mentioned officially.
DISCUSSION
Agricultural production transition in the fresh-brackish water interface sub-region follows the government's direction (Government, 2020), shifting rice production to other crops or brackish/saline water aquaculture effectively. The influencing factors and pressures of the transition are not only natural factors (drought-salinity) but also intertwined socio-economic factors (Nhan D. K. et al., 2007). Farmers' production transition and adaptive solutions aim to intensify to increase profits when resources are sufficient. Household livelihood resources are significant for adaptive capacity (Nhan D. K. et al., 2007). Farmers’ production transitions are reactive and may transfer economic damage risks from drought-salinity to risks from diseases or unstable markets for fruit trees or shrimp.
Livelihood resources recognized as advantages for adaptive solutions are not highly evaluated. Policy impacts, the role of local government/political-social organizations are important for poverty reduction goals but may not be sufficient to promote the agricultural product industry's economy through value chain and supply chain improvements (Agramont A. et al., 2021), especially for wealthier farmers. Difficulties need attention to improve to enhance farmers' adaptive capacity, including human and financial resources, marketization of agricultural products. Therefore, production management capacity, organizational linkage of the entire value chain to meet the market is more important than individual farming techniques (Agramont A. et al., 2021).
Macro policy issues at the government level related to agricultural and rural development in the MD region have covered policy concerns about community advantages and difficulties. Micro-level concerns such as credit, farmer capacity, mechanization, are mentioned in specialized sector action plans. However, more important is the synchronous implementation of solution groups from legal documents at the local level through coordinated synchronization between specialized sectors and localities based on the agricultural product industry's economic approach.
A single solution cannot solve farmers' problems but requires a group of integrated solutions. Not only engineering solutions but also non-engineering solutions. For example: Developing farmers' adaptive capacity to successfully transition agricultural production according to the government's direction requires not only irrigation infrastructure, technical solutions but also solutions related to household livelihood capacity, especially for poor farmers, such as educational level and technical skills, production management, information and credit access, linkage with input and output services. Effective synchronous implementation of specialized sector legal/policy documents at the local level based on the agricultural product industry's economic approach is necessary. This meets macro policy goals and practical needs to improve household livelihood capacity. When the technical-economic-social environment is favorable combined with farmers having sufficient management capacity, they can manage adaptive production, improving the agricultural product value chain they produce (Agramont A. et al., 2021). During the research period, provinces are in the early stages of integrated planning implementation. Hopefully, the approach and discussed concerns will be considered in the integrated planning of the provinces.
CONCLUSION
In the fresh-brackish water boundary sub-region of the MD, specifically in Ben Tre and Soc Trang provinces, farmers shift production according to the governments and local directions. The transition follows two different directions: (1) freshwater ecology for diversification and stable production, and (2) brackish/saline ecology for increased production profits from shrimp farming. Farmers tend to intensify fruit trees and shrimp when initial success is achieved. This may shift risks from drought-salinity to risks from diseases or unstable agricultural markets.
Production transition is influenced by intertwined natural and socio-economic factors and pressures. Production transition and adaptive solutions not only relate to production techniques but also link production and services to improve the agricultural value chain. The importance of drivers and constraints of adaptive solutions varies according to household resources. Constraints on production management capacity, financial resources, and information access are considered important.
Effective synchronous implementation of specialized sector legal/policy documents at the local level based on the agricultural product industry's economic approach through coordination between sector management and localities is necessary. The degree of adaptation and water resource management needs further research and evaluation to keep it going forward.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The research was conducted with funding from the project "Research on adaptive strategies for sustainable use of natural resources in the context of climate change and environmental degradation" (E12), under the project "Upgrading Can Tho University" (VN14-P6) funded by the Japanese Government's Official Development Assistance (ODA). Sincere gratitude from the group of authors.
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