ABSTRACT
From January to May 2025, the Trump administration reaffirmed protectionist trade measures aimed at reducing trade deficits and encouraging domestic manufacturing. President Donald Trump's second term began with a renewed focus on "America First" economic strategies, with tariffs at the forefront of efforts to protect American industries from foreign competition. This broad tariff targets specific sectors, including electronics, automotive parts, and steel. It marked a significant shift from targeted tariffs of previous years, representing a broader effort to overhaul the United States’ trade system. Nonetheless the complexity and uncertainty of recent U.S. trade policy, trade measures announced so far have signaled a clear reversion to aggressive trade protectionism under the Trump administration, with tariffs being used as both an economic and geopolitical tool. The U.S. Reciprocal Tariff Policy toward the agricultural sector may have significant impacts on several emerging economies, particularly ASEAN countries that have a longstanding strategic partnership with the U.S, such as Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines, which heavily rely on their agricultural exports. This article aims to analyze the potential long-term impacts of the US's protective trade policy on agricultural development in Asian countries. This article further examines recent agricultural policy responses by certain Asian countries to U.S. trade policy under the Trump administration. Lastly, this note offers long-term policy recommendations for farming policymakers to address the challenges posed by the uncertain global trading system.
Keywords: agriculture trade, tariffs, US trade policy, subsidy policy, agriculture reform
INTRODUCTION
From January to May 2025, the Trump administration reaffirmed protectionist trade measures, reviving key elements from Trump’s first term and introducing new tariff policies aimed at reducing trade deficits and encouraging domestic manufacturing. President Donald Trump's second term began with a renewed focus on "America First" economic strategies, with tariffs at the forefront of efforts to protect American industries from foreign competition, particularly from major trade partners such as China and Mexico. One of the administration’s earliest moves in 2025 was the proposal and partial rollout of a universal 10% tariff on all imports, designed to level the playing field and support American jobs. This broad tariff targets specific sectors, including electronics, automotive parts, and steel. It marked a significant shift from targeted tariffs of previous years, representing a broader effort to overhaul the United States’ trade system.
In addition to blanket tariffs, the administration revived and expanded Section 301 investigations into alleged unfair trade practices by China, leading to renewed tariff hikes on Chinese goods, including consumer electronics and machinery. The policy was accompanied by heightened rhetoric emphasizing economic decoupling and the reshoring of critical supply chains. Tariff exemptions were selectively granted to certain allies, including Canada and the United Kingdom, reflecting a strategic effort to rebuild bilateral trade frameworks outside of multilateral trading systems such as the WTO and GATT. These tariff policies initiated by the Trump Administration elicited various reactions in the US. Supporters highlighted job creation in specific manufacturing sectors, while critics cautioned about escalations of inflation, rising consumer prices, and strained relations with key trading partners, in particular security allies. Nonetheless the complexity and uncertainty of recent U.S. trade policy, trade measures announced so far have signaled a clear reversion to aggressive trade protectionism under the Trump administration, with tariffs being used as both an economic and geopolitical tool. The U.S. Reciprocal Tariff Policy toward the agricultural sector may have significant impacts on several emerging economies, particularly ASEAN countries that have a longstanding strategic partnership with the U.S., such as Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines, which heavily rely on their agricultural exports.
This article aims to analyze the potential long-term impacts of the US's protective trade policy on agricultural development in Asian countries. This article further examines recent agricultural policy responses by certain Asian countries to U.S. trade policy under the Trump administration. Lastly, this note offers long-term policy recommendations for farming policymakers to address the challenges posed by the uncertain global trading system.
- The Impacts of the U.S. Reciprocal Tariff Policy on the Agricultural Sector in Asia
The implementation of the United States' Reciprocal Tariff Policy under the Trump administration in 2025 has introduced a new level of complexity and disruption to current international trade relationships. By matching or mirroring the tariffs other countries impose on U.S. exports, the policy aims to pressure trading partners to lower their trade barriers or face equivalent retaliatory measures. However, despite its strategic goals, the policy has caused significant economic instability and diplomatic tension, particularly in the agricultural sector, which has traditionally served as a key economic link between the United States and Asia.
Many Asian countries, including China, India, Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia, have longstanding trade ties with the United States, primarily in the export of agricultural and food products such as rice, seafood, tropical fruits, spices, and processed goods. The Reciprocal Tariff Policy has disrupted these relationships by causing retaliatory tariffs and non-tariff barriers. India and Thailand are key suppliers of rice and seafood to the U.S., and higher duties could severely impact their agricultural exports, potentially leading to higher prices for these products in the U.S. Several Asian economies have retaliated by targeting U.S. exports, including soybeans, corn, poultry, and dairy. This tit-for-tat has increased trade tensions, creating uncertainty that impacts prices, contracts, logistics, and overall trade volume.
The instability has negatively impacted stakeholders in both regions, particularly SMEs and smallholder farmers, who often lack the resources and capacity to handle sudden cost increases or swiftly find new markets. As a result, the policy has unevenly challenged less resilient economies, increasing vulnerabilities in their agricultural sectors and raising concerns about food security and rural livelihoods.
- Regional and Strategic Responses in some Asian Countries
In response to these challenges, several Asian countries have intensified their efforts to diversify trade portfolios and reduce dependence on the U.S. market. One key strategy has been strengthening regional economic integration through frameworks such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which provides a way to lower intra-Asian trade barriers and acts as a buffer against external policy shocks. The RCEP, which encompasses major economies such as China, Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN member states, is increasingly viewed as a vital platform for securing alternative export markets and enhancing agricultural resilience.
At the national level, countries have developed tailored strategies based on their unique economic structures and trade profiles. In Vietnam, policymakers have aimed to expand agricultural exports to the European Union and Japan while simultaneously investing in domestic value-added processing industries. This dual approach seeks to enhance competitiveness and shield the sector from external demand fluctuations. Indonesia, on the other hand, has focused on boosting domestic consumption to stabilize internal prices and safeguard rural incomes. These examples illustrate the diversity of policy responses and underscore the increasing emphasis on self-reliance and regional cooperation.
- Escalating tensions and strategic realignment: The case of China
Reciprocal tariffs have further intensified the already strained trade relations between the United States and China. China’s agricultural exporters now face higher duties on products like garlic, apple juice concentrate, and other specialty items. At the same time, American agricultural firms—many of which had begun to recover market share in China after previous disputes—now face renewed trade barriers to market access. In response to the United States' reciprocal tariffs on China's agricultural products, China has implemented a multifaceted strategy aimed at mitigating the economic impact and safeguarding its agrarian sector. Firstly, China imposed retaliatory tariffs that affect US$21 billion in U.S. agricultural exports, including soybeans, pork, and corn, targeting regions that are politically significant to U.S. policymakers. (Reuters, 2025) This approach sought to exert pressure on the U.S. administration to reconsider its tariff policies. Secondly, China accelerated the diversification of its import sources by increasing agricultural trade with countries such as Brazil, Argentina, and Russia, thereby reducing its dependence on U.S. products. Additionally, China intensified its investments in domestic agriculture, offering subsidies and policy support to boost local production and improve food security.
Strategic stockpiling and the expansion of the Belt and Road Initiative have further facilitated the development of alternative supply chains. Diplomatically, China pursued negotiations while simultaneously strengthening trade ties with other global partners through the establishment of free trade agreements. These responses highlight China’s long-term strategy to reduce vulnerability to U.S. trade actions while maintaining resilience in its food supply chains. The combination of retaliatory measures, diversification, and domestic investment underscores China's commitment to safeguarding its economic interests amid escalating trade tensions.
- Strategic containment and adaptation: Taiwan as an example
In April 2025, the United States government reinstated its Reciprocal Tariff Policy, imposing steep “reciprocal” duties—initially at 32%, later adjusted to the range between 10-40% in September—on U.S.’ trading partners. Taiwan has actively negotiated with the US and gained significant exemptions for IT products, particularly semiconductors. Though technology exports were secured, the reciprocal tariff policy disrupted other important Taiwan’s exports to the U.S., notably agricultural exports. Taiwan’s major agricultural exports, including orchids, tea, edamame, tilapia, and mahi‑mahi, were directly affected by increased U.S. import costs. Agriculture comprised a small but strategically significant segment of Taiwan’s U.S.-bound exports. (Executive Yuan, 2025) Under the 32% reciprocal tariff scenario, the Executive Yuan projected a loss of NT$320 million in orchid exports and NT$460 million in tilapia alone. These tariffs threatened to disrupt well-established trading relationships and risk pricing Taiwan’s goods out of the American market. The uncertainty led to a sharp 9.7% collapse in Taiwan’s stock index after the tariffs were announced, underscoring market concerns.
Taiwan swiftly implemented a multifaceted countermeasure package. On April 22, the Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) announced a six-point program providing subsidies. Including NT$20 million per loan at subsidized interest rates, up to NT$10 million for cold-chain infrastructure and packaging—particularly for floriculture, tea, and edamame—and export marketing support. President Lai Ching-te explicitly ruled out retaliatory tariffs, describing U.S. duties as “frictions between friends” (Focus Taiwan, 2025)
Instead, Taiwan’s government prioritized negotiation with Washington, aiming to reduce tariffs to zero and offering to eliminate Taiwan's tariffs on U.S. goods. President Lai also proposed increasing imports of U.S. agricultural products and energy, forming a cross-agency “U.S. Investment Team,” and addressing U.S. concerns over non-tariff barriers. (President's Office, 2025)
Taiwan’s strategy combined economic support with diplomatic flexibility. Instead of imposing counter-tariffs, Taiwan chose to absorb the impacts and actively manage the situation by reforming its trade relations. The sizable support packages are aimed not only to mitigate short-term losses but also to improve long-term competitiveness through enhancements in the cold chain, upgrades in processing, branding, and market diversification. This approach reflects Taiwan’s previous efforts to address trade barriers, such as China’s pineapple ban, and highlights the importance of agricultural resilience.
- Policy Recommendations for Asian Agricultural Policymakers in Response to U.S. Tariff Escalations
As the United States under the Trump administration pivots toward a more assertive and protectionist trade policy—particularly through the imposition of tariffs on key agricultural imports—Asian economies that have long depended on U.S. markets must recalibrate their agrarian strategies. The emerging landscape is marked by geopolitical uncertainty, shifting supply chains, and increasing vulnerability for export-reliant agricultural sectors. To confront these challenges, policymakers must adopt a multidimensional response framework that enhances resilience, diversification, and domestic capacity.
a. Diversifying trade markets
Overreliance on a limited number of export destinations—especially those with politically sensitive relationships, such as the U.S.—exposes Asian agricultural producers to abrupt policy shifts, tariff hikes, and non-tariff trade barriers. A more balanced and diversified trade strategy is essential. Policymakers should actively promote new market access in regions such as the European Union, the Middle East, and Sub-Saharan Africa, where demand for food imports is rising. Simultaneously, deeper regional integration through trade blocs like ASEAN, the CPTPP, and RCEP can create a more stable intra-Asian trade ecosystem. These partnerships allow for harmonized standards, reduced transaction costs, and strategic insulation from external economic shocks.
b. Strengthening domestic agricultural value chains
To move beyond raw commodity exports, governments must prioritize the development of domestic agricultural value chains. Policy tools, such as tax incentives, innovation grants, and infrastructure development, should be utilized to encourage investment in food processing, cold storage, modern logistics, packaging innovation, and digital traceability. These enhancements not only increase product shelf life and safety but also open pathways to premium export markets with higher profit margins. Value-added agriculture contributes to rural job creation, increased farmer income, and long-term competitiveness in a volatile global trade environment.
c. Enhancing food security and agricultural self-reliance
Food security must be elevated as a strategic national priority. Public procurement programs and consumer awareness campaigns can be used to stimulate demand for local products and reduce reliance on volatile international markets. In tandem, targeted support for smallholders and local farmers—including improved access to microcredit, training in climate-smart agriculture, and dissemination of yield-enhancing technologies—can increase domestic production capacity. A more self-reliant agricultural sector not only buffers against external shocks but also strengthens national food sovereignty. However, it is also crucial to adopt in-depth analysis and oversight measures to prevent the overproduction of domestic agricultural products in response to the uncertain trading environment. (Seth, 2025)
d. Promoting diplomatic flexibility and strategic trade alliances
A retaliatory response to U.S. tariffs could escalate tensions and harm long-term interests. Instead, a pragmatic diplomatic approach—as demonstrated by Taiwan’s negotiation strategies—can help maintain market access while avoiding escalation. Countries should pursue bilateral agreements that facilitate regulatory harmonization, mutual recognition of standards, and tariff exemptions where feasible. Strategic outreach to non-traditional partners such as Brazil, Argentina, and emerging African economies can further diversify trade flows and reduce dependency on any single geopolitical partner. Effective economic diplomacy can convert short-term disruption into a long-term opportunity.
e. Enhancing inter-agency coordination and crisis response
To respond effectively to sudden trade disruptions, governments should establish inter-agency trade resilience task forces. These bodies must be capable of rapid information sharing, deploying emergency subsidies, and coordinating with industry stakeholders to ensure an effective response. A centralized database of real-time trade data and early-warning systems can inform swift policy interventions. Additionally, scenario-based planning and risk assessment should be institutionalized to improve preparedness and reduce response time in future trade crises.
CONCLUSION
The global trade environment is undergoing a fundamental change, with protectionism, geopolitical tensions, and climate volatility altering traditional supply and demand patterns. Although the U.S. Reciprocal Tariff Policy aims to promote fairness, its implementation in international trade has led to complex and sometimes unexpected effects on Asian agricultural markets. It has resulted in trade diversion, disrupted long-standing supply chains, and heightened diplomatic tensions. (Tatjana Döbeling, 2025). For many Asian countries, especially those heavily reliant on agricultural exports to the U.S., this highlights the urgent need for diversification, regional trade partnerships, and enhanced agricultural resilience. By contrast, countries with significant economic power, such as China, will impose countermeasures and not be overly concerned about trade wars. (Daniel C. Chow, 2021).
Asian agricultural policymakers must not only adapt to these changes but also lead with proactive, strategic reforms. By embracing diversification, strengthening domestic capacities, and adopting smart diplomacy, they can safeguard the future of their agricultural sectors while ensuring food security and economic stability. As discussed earlier, the U.S. Reciprocal Tariff Policy has put pressure on Taiwan’s agricultural exports, revealing weaknesses in sectors such as floriculture, edamame, and seafood. In response, Taiwan adopted a balanced strategy—offering financial support, avoiding retaliatory measures, and focusing on negotiation and building resilience. This approach highlights Taiwan’s capacity for adaptive governance in the face of external economic challenges, to maintain good relations with the U.S. while protecting the competitiveness and diversification of its agricultural industry.
From a policy perspective, changing circumstances require a more nuanced approach to trade negotiations, considering the varying capabilities of trading partners and the systemic risks associated with protectionism. As global trade continues to face challenges such as tariff retaliation, it is essential to adapt trade strategies to promote inclusivity, stability, and sustainability, thereby fostering economic stability and mutual benefits across regions.
REFERENCES
Paul Teng, US Tariffs and ASEAN Food Security: Turning Short-Term Pain into Long-Term Gain, FULCRUM, Analysis of South East Asia, https://fulcrum.sg/us-tariffs-and-asean-food-security-turning-short-term-pain-into-long-term-gain/#:~:text=Data%20from%20the%20International%20Trade%20Centre%20%28ITC%29%20site,products%29%2C%20and%20Malaysia%20%28palm%20oil%20and%20tropical%20fruits%29.
Andrew Muhammad, Md Deluair Hossen, and Amanda M, Theme Overview: U.S. Agricultural Trade and ASEAN, A, Country Magazine Vol39, Q3, https://www.choicesmagazine.org/UserFiles/file/cmsarticle_914.pdf
Executive Yuan Press Releases, Premier announces economic stability plan in response to the US tariff policy, https://english.ey.gov.tw/Page/61BF20C3E89B856/26fe5453-e2b7-42b4-9dc0-5ea136f161b9
Focus Taiwan, Agriculture ministry details measures to offset Trump tariff impact,
https://focustaiwan.tw/business/202504220008
Reuters, China hits US agriculture, says it won't be bullied by fresh Trump tariffs, https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-vows-countermeasures-against-us-tariffs-linked-fentanyl-2025-03-04/
Seth Millstein, Sentient News, April 22, 2025, How Tariffs Will Impact Farmers and Consumers,
https://sentientmedia.org/how-tariffs-will-impact-farmers-and-consumers/
7. Office of the President, New Press Release, President Lai delivers remarks on US tariff policy response, https://english.president.gov.tw/News/6935
Daniel C. Chow and Iam Sheldon, Understanding the Economic and Political Effects of Trump's China Tariffs, 12 Wm. & Mary Bus. L. Rev. 273 (2021)
Tatjana Döbeling, Sionegael Ikeme, Amanda M. Countryman, Tariff Troubles: Repercussions of Protectionist Policies on US Agriculture and the Trade Deficit, The World Economy, July 2025. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/twec.13731
Analysis on U.S. Reciprocal Tariff Policy Impacts on Asian States’ Agriculture Trade and Responsive Measures: Lesson from Taiwan and China
ABSTRACT
From January to May 2025, the Trump administration reaffirmed protectionist trade measures aimed at reducing trade deficits and encouraging domestic manufacturing. President Donald Trump's second term began with a renewed focus on "America First" economic strategies, with tariffs at the forefront of efforts to protect American industries from foreign competition. This broad tariff targets specific sectors, including electronics, automotive parts, and steel. It marked a significant shift from targeted tariffs of previous years, representing a broader effort to overhaul the United States’ trade system. Nonetheless the complexity and uncertainty of recent U.S. trade policy, trade measures announced so far have signaled a clear reversion to aggressive trade protectionism under the Trump administration, with tariffs being used as both an economic and geopolitical tool. The U.S. Reciprocal Tariff Policy toward the agricultural sector may have significant impacts on several emerging economies, particularly ASEAN countries that have a longstanding strategic partnership with the U.S, such as Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines, which heavily rely on their agricultural exports. This article aims to analyze the potential long-term impacts of the US's protective trade policy on agricultural development in Asian countries. This article further examines recent agricultural policy responses by certain Asian countries to U.S. trade policy under the Trump administration. Lastly, this note offers long-term policy recommendations for farming policymakers to address the challenges posed by the uncertain global trading system.
Keywords: agriculture trade, tariffs, US trade policy, subsidy policy, agriculture reform
INTRODUCTION
From January to May 2025, the Trump administration reaffirmed protectionist trade measures, reviving key elements from Trump’s first term and introducing new tariff policies aimed at reducing trade deficits and encouraging domestic manufacturing. President Donald Trump's second term began with a renewed focus on "America First" economic strategies, with tariffs at the forefront of efforts to protect American industries from foreign competition, particularly from major trade partners such as China and Mexico. One of the administration’s earliest moves in 2025 was the proposal and partial rollout of a universal 10% tariff on all imports, designed to level the playing field and support American jobs. This broad tariff targets specific sectors, including electronics, automotive parts, and steel. It marked a significant shift from targeted tariffs of previous years, representing a broader effort to overhaul the United States’ trade system.
In addition to blanket tariffs, the administration revived and expanded Section 301 investigations into alleged unfair trade practices by China, leading to renewed tariff hikes on Chinese goods, including consumer electronics and machinery. The policy was accompanied by heightened rhetoric emphasizing economic decoupling and the reshoring of critical supply chains. Tariff exemptions were selectively granted to certain allies, including Canada and the United Kingdom, reflecting a strategic effort to rebuild bilateral trade frameworks outside of multilateral trading systems such as the WTO and GATT. These tariff policies initiated by the Trump Administration elicited various reactions in the US. Supporters highlighted job creation in specific manufacturing sectors, while critics cautioned about escalations of inflation, rising consumer prices, and strained relations with key trading partners, in particular security allies. Nonetheless the complexity and uncertainty of recent U.S. trade policy, trade measures announced so far have signaled a clear reversion to aggressive trade protectionism under the Trump administration, with tariffs being used as both an economic and geopolitical tool. The U.S. Reciprocal Tariff Policy toward the agricultural sector may have significant impacts on several emerging economies, particularly ASEAN countries that have a longstanding strategic partnership with the U.S., such as Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines, which heavily rely on their agricultural exports.
This article aims to analyze the potential long-term impacts of the US's protective trade policy on agricultural development in Asian countries. This article further examines recent agricultural policy responses by certain Asian countries to U.S. trade policy under the Trump administration. Lastly, this note offers long-term policy recommendations for farming policymakers to address the challenges posed by the uncertain global trading system.
The implementation of the United States' Reciprocal Tariff Policy under the Trump administration in 2025 has introduced a new level of complexity and disruption to current international trade relationships. By matching or mirroring the tariffs other countries impose on U.S. exports, the policy aims to pressure trading partners to lower their trade barriers or face equivalent retaliatory measures. However, despite its strategic goals, the policy has caused significant economic instability and diplomatic tension, particularly in the agricultural sector, which has traditionally served as a key economic link between the United States and Asia.
Many Asian countries, including China, India, Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia, have longstanding trade ties with the United States, primarily in the export of agricultural and food products such as rice, seafood, tropical fruits, spices, and processed goods. The Reciprocal Tariff Policy has disrupted these relationships by causing retaliatory tariffs and non-tariff barriers. India and Thailand are key suppliers of rice and seafood to the U.S., and higher duties could severely impact their agricultural exports, potentially leading to higher prices for these products in the U.S. Several Asian economies have retaliated by targeting U.S. exports, including soybeans, corn, poultry, and dairy. This tit-for-tat has increased trade tensions, creating uncertainty that impacts prices, contracts, logistics, and overall trade volume.
The instability has negatively impacted stakeholders in both regions, particularly SMEs and smallholder farmers, who often lack the resources and capacity to handle sudden cost increases or swiftly find new markets. As a result, the policy has unevenly challenged less resilient economies, increasing vulnerabilities in their agricultural sectors and raising concerns about food security and rural livelihoods.
In response to these challenges, several Asian countries have intensified their efforts to diversify trade portfolios and reduce dependence on the U.S. market. One key strategy has been strengthening regional economic integration through frameworks such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which provides a way to lower intra-Asian trade barriers and acts as a buffer against external policy shocks. The RCEP, which encompasses major economies such as China, Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN member states, is increasingly viewed as a vital platform for securing alternative export markets and enhancing agricultural resilience.
At the national level, countries have developed tailored strategies based on their unique economic structures and trade profiles. In Vietnam, policymakers have aimed to expand agricultural exports to the European Union and Japan while simultaneously investing in domestic value-added processing industries. This dual approach seeks to enhance competitiveness and shield the sector from external demand fluctuations. Indonesia, on the other hand, has focused on boosting domestic consumption to stabilize internal prices and safeguard rural incomes. These examples illustrate the diversity of policy responses and underscore the increasing emphasis on self-reliance and regional cooperation.
Reciprocal tariffs have further intensified the already strained trade relations between the United States and China. China’s agricultural exporters now face higher duties on products like garlic, apple juice concentrate, and other specialty items. At the same time, American agricultural firms—many of which had begun to recover market share in China after previous disputes—now face renewed trade barriers to market access. In response to the United States' reciprocal tariffs on China's agricultural products, China has implemented a multifaceted strategy aimed at mitigating the economic impact and safeguarding its agrarian sector. Firstly, China imposed retaliatory tariffs that affect US$21 billion in U.S. agricultural exports, including soybeans, pork, and corn, targeting regions that are politically significant to U.S. policymakers. (Reuters, 2025) This approach sought to exert pressure on the U.S. administration to reconsider its tariff policies. Secondly, China accelerated the diversification of its import sources by increasing agricultural trade with countries such as Brazil, Argentina, and Russia, thereby reducing its dependence on U.S. products. Additionally, China intensified its investments in domestic agriculture, offering subsidies and policy support to boost local production and improve food security.
Strategic stockpiling and the expansion of the Belt and Road Initiative have further facilitated the development of alternative supply chains. Diplomatically, China pursued negotiations while simultaneously strengthening trade ties with other global partners through the establishment of free trade agreements. These responses highlight China’s long-term strategy to reduce vulnerability to U.S. trade actions while maintaining resilience in its food supply chains. The combination of retaliatory measures, diversification, and domestic investment underscores China's commitment to safeguarding its economic interests amid escalating trade tensions.
In April 2025, the United States government reinstated its Reciprocal Tariff Policy, imposing steep “reciprocal” duties—initially at 32%, later adjusted to the range between 10-40% in September—on U.S.’ trading partners. Taiwan has actively negotiated with the US and gained significant exemptions for IT products, particularly semiconductors. Though technology exports were secured, the reciprocal tariff policy disrupted other important Taiwan’s exports to the U.S., notably agricultural exports. Taiwan’s major agricultural exports, including orchids, tea, edamame, tilapia, and mahi‑mahi, were directly affected by increased U.S. import costs. Agriculture comprised a small but strategically significant segment of Taiwan’s U.S.-bound exports. (Executive Yuan, 2025) Under the 32% reciprocal tariff scenario, the Executive Yuan projected a loss of NT$320 million in orchid exports and NT$460 million in tilapia alone. These tariffs threatened to disrupt well-established trading relationships and risk pricing Taiwan’s goods out of the American market. The uncertainty led to a sharp 9.7% collapse in Taiwan’s stock index after the tariffs were announced, underscoring market concerns.
Taiwan swiftly implemented a multifaceted countermeasure package. On April 22, the Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) announced a six-point program providing subsidies. Including NT$20 million per loan at subsidized interest rates, up to NT$10 million for cold-chain infrastructure and packaging—particularly for floriculture, tea, and edamame—and export marketing support. President Lai Ching-te explicitly ruled out retaliatory tariffs, describing U.S. duties as “frictions between friends” (Focus Taiwan, 2025)
Instead, Taiwan’s government prioritized negotiation with Washington, aiming to reduce tariffs to zero and offering to eliminate Taiwan's tariffs on U.S. goods. President Lai also proposed increasing imports of U.S. agricultural products and energy, forming a cross-agency “U.S. Investment Team,” and addressing U.S. concerns over non-tariff barriers. (President's Office, 2025)
Taiwan’s strategy combined economic support with diplomatic flexibility. Instead of imposing counter-tariffs, Taiwan chose to absorb the impacts and actively manage the situation by reforming its trade relations. The sizable support packages are aimed not only to mitigate short-term losses but also to improve long-term competitiveness through enhancements in the cold chain, upgrades in processing, branding, and market diversification. This approach reflects Taiwan’s previous efforts to address trade barriers, such as China’s pineapple ban, and highlights the importance of agricultural resilience.
As the United States under the Trump administration pivots toward a more assertive and protectionist trade policy—particularly through the imposition of tariffs on key agricultural imports—Asian economies that have long depended on U.S. markets must recalibrate their agrarian strategies. The emerging landscape is marked by geopolitical uncertainty, shifting supply chains, and increasing vulnerability for export-reliant agricultural sectors. To confront these challenges, policymakers must adopt a multidimensional response framework that enhances resilience, diversification, and domestic capacity.
a. Diversifying trade markets
Overreliance on a limited number of export destinations—especially those with politically sensitive relationships, such as the U.S.—exposes Asian agricultural producers to abrupt policy shifts, tariff hikes, and non-tariff trade barriers. A more balanced and diversified trade strategy is essential. Policymakers should actively promote new market access in regions such as the European Union, the Middle East, and Sub-Saharan Africa, where demand for food imports is rising. Simultaneously, deeper regional integration through trade blocs like ASEAN, the CPTPP, and RCEP can create a more stable intra-Asian trade ecosystem. These partnerships allow for harmonized standards, reduced transaction costs, and strategic insulation from external economic shocks.
b. Strengthening domestic agricultural value chains
To move beyond raw commodity exports, governments must prioritize the development of domestic agricultural value chains. Policy tools, such as tax incentives, innovation grants, and infrastructure development, should be utilized to encourage investment in food processing, cold storage, modern logistics, packaging innovation, and digital traceability. These enhancements not only increase product shelf life and safety but also open pathways to premium export markets with higher profit margins. Value-added agriculture contributes to rural job creation, increased farmer income, and long-term competitiveness in a volatile global trade environment.
c. Enhancing food security and agricultural self-reliance
Food security must be elevated as a strategic national priority. Public procurement programs and consumer awareness campaigns can be used to stimulate demand for local products and reduce reliance on volatile international markets. In tandem, targeted support for smallholders and local farmers—including improved access to microcredit, training in climate-smart agriculture, and dissemination of yield-enhancing technologies—can increase domestic production capacity. A more self-reliant agricultural sector not only buffers against external shocks but also strengthens national food sovereignty. However, it is also crucial to adopt in-depth analysis and oversight measures to prevent the overproduction of domestic agricultural products in response to the uncertain trading environment. (Seth, 2025)
d. Promoting diplomatic flexibility and strategic trade alliances
A retaliatory response to U.S. tariffs could escalate tensions and harm long-term interests. Instead, a pragmatic diplomatic approach—as demonstrated by Taiwan’s negotiation strategies—can help maintain market access while avoiding escalation. Countries should pursue bilateral agreements that facilitate regulatory harmonization, mutual recognition of standards, and tariff exemptions where feasible. Strategic outreach to non-traditional partners such as Brazil, Argentina, and emerging African economies can further diversify trade flows and reduce dependency on any single geopolitical partner. Effective economic diplomacy can convert short-term disruption into a long-term opportunity.
e. Enhancing inter-agency coordination and crisis response
To respond effectively to sudden trade disruptions, governments should establish inter-agency trade resilience task forces. These bodies must be capable of rapid information sharing, deploying emergency subsidies, and coordinating with industry stakeholders to ensure an effective response. A centralized database of real-time trade data and early-warning systems can inform swift policy interventions. Additionally, scenario-based planning and risk assessment should be institutionalized to improve preparedness and reduce response time in future trade crises.
CONCLUSION
The global trade environment is undergoing a fundamental change, with protectionism, geopolitical tensions, and climate volatility altering traditional supply and demand patterns. Although the U.S. Reciprocal Tariff Policy aims to promote fairness, its implementation in international trade has led to complex and sometimes unexpected effects on Asian agricultural markets. It has resulted in trade diversion, disrupted long-standing supply chains, and heightened diplomatic tensions. (Tatjana Döbeling, 2025). For many Asian countries, especially those heavily reliant on agricultural exports to the U.S., this highlights the urgent need for diversification, regional trade partnerships, and enhanced agricultural resilience. By contrast, countries with significant economic power, such as China, will impose countermeasures and not be overly concerned about trade wars. (Daniel C. Chow, 2021).
Asian agricultural policymakers must not only adapt to these changes but also lead with proactive, strategic reforms. By embracing diversification, strengthening domestic capacities, and adopting smart diplomacy, they can safeguard the future of their agricultural sectors while ensuring food security and economic stability. As discussed earlier, the U.S. Reciprocal Tariff Policy has put pressure on Taiwan’s agricultural exports, revealing weaknesses in sectors such as floriculture, edamame, and seafood. In response, Taiwan adopted a balanced strategy—offering financial support, avoiding retaliatory measures, and focusing on negotiation and building resilience. This approach highlights Taiwan’s capacity for adaptive governance in the face of external economic challenges, to maintain good relations with the U.S. while protecting the competitiveness and diversification of its agricultural industry.
From a policy perspective, changing circumstances require a more nuanced approach to trade negotiations, considering the varying capabilities of trading partners and the systemic risks associated with protectionism. As global trade continues to face challenges such as tariff retaliation, it is essential to adapt trade strategies to promote inclusivity, stability, and sustainability, thereby fostering economic stability and mutual benefits across regions.
REFERENCES
Paul Teng, US Tariffs and ASEAN Food Security: Turning Short-Term Pain into Long-Term Gain, FULCRUM, Analysis of South East Asia, https://fulcrum.sg/us-tariffs-and-asean-food-security-turning-short-term-pain-into-long-term-gain/#:~:text=Data%20from%20the%20International%20Trade%20Centre%20%28ITC%29%20site,products%29%2C%20and%20Malaysia%20%28palm%20oil%20and%20tropical%20fruits%29.
Andrew Muhammad, Md Deluair Hossen, and Amanda M, Theme Overview: U.S. Agricultural Trade and ASEAN, A, Country Magazine Vol39, Q3, https://www.choicesmagazine.org/UserFiles/file/cmsarticle_914.pdf
Executive Yuan Press Releases, Premier announces economic stability plan in response to the US tariff policy, https://english.ey.gov.tw/Page/61BF20C3E89B856/26fe5453-e2b7-42b4-9dc0-5ea136f161b9
Focus Taiwan, Agriculture ministry details measures to offset Trump tariff impact,
https://focustaiwan.tw/business/202504220008
Reuters, China hits US agriculture, says it won't be bullied by fresh Trump tariffs, https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-vows-countermeasures-against-us-tariffs-linked-fentanyl-2025-03-04/
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