What a second Trump trade war would mean for farmers

Agriculturedive
2024.11.07

As Donald Trump prepares to start a second term in office, farmers are bracing for the prospect of increased tariffs and another painful trade war at a time when U.S. exports already remain uncompetitive.

Trump has threatened a blanket 60% tariff on goods from China in what would be a significant escalation from the first trade war, when duties reached a high of 25%. The former president has also floated 10% to 20% tariffs on other imports.

China remains the largest export market for U.S. farmers, and tariffs reduced agricultural exports by $27 billion in the 18 months or so following the start of the trade war in mid-2018, a report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture found.

A second Trump presidency could once again leave farmers caught in the crossfire. While China was forced to buy some U.S. commodities under Trump’s first term due to grain shortages and the spread of African swine fever, the country is more prepared this time around after making strides in domestic food production.

“China has learned some lessons and now has fairly significant reserves of certain commodities like grain and pork,” said Ben Lilliston, director of rural strategies and climate change at the Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy. “They’re trying to protect and insulate themselves a little bit from the international market and, in particular, being too dependent on the United States.”

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